tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post4713639284644310637..comments2024-03-27T06:03:35.695-04:00Comments on Brodeur is a Fraud: What Does a Clutch Goaltender Look Like?The Contrarian Goaltenderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-4439891308582790282022-08-14T08:11:51.028-04:002022-08-14T08:11:51.028-04:00golden goose sneakers
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Great outshooting numbers, strong goal differential, one of the best records in games decided by 3+ goals, great top-end talent, and a 33-18-6 record with Corey Crawford in net. The Hawks only struggled early in the year in large part because of Marty Turco and his sub-.900 save percentage.<br /><br />Secondly, the fact that Vancouver went up 3-0 has made many people in hindsight seem to think those were easy wins, as you apparently do. The scoring chance numbers disagree. Luongo let in only 5 goals on 53 scoring chances in the first 3 games, which is a very impressive record and his play was a big reason why the Canucks were able to go ahead early in that series.<br /><br />Finally, I agree that Luongo did not have to stand on his head in his Finals shutouts, but to say he was not tested at all is unfair. The number of chances he faced in his two shutouts wasn't that much lower than what Thomas was facing in his wins (Luongo averaged 9 scoring chances against in his shutouts, Thomas averaged 12.5 chances against in his 4 wins).<br /><br />I also don't think it is correct to say that Vancouver dominated the scoring chances in the Finals. Copper 'N Blue counted the chances as <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/6/19/2228381/canucks-vs-bruins-scoring-chances-stanley-cup-finals-totals" rel="nofollow">103-87 in favour of Boston</a>.<br /><br />But really, I don't see how any of this is important. Because of the sample size, the only way to evaluate playoff play is to look at the entire thing, rather than demanding only to see a certain type of performance like winning despite getting heavily outchanced by a superior opponent. Otherwise you end up getting into all kinds of subjectivity and small sample size narrative building and I don't think that adds much to the conversation, to be honest.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-79517516693786980022011-12-16T01:39:26.596-05:002011-12-16T01:39:26.596-05:00I wouldn't call the 2011 Hawks a great team. G...I wouldn't call the 2011 Hawks a great team. Good by the standards of an eighth seed, perhaps, like the 09 Ducks or 99 Pens, but nowhere near elite. They were pretty much decimated by the cap and lost many of their key cogs like Byfuglien, and struggled all year. For the first three games of the series Vancouver pretty much had complete control and Lou didn't face too much dangerous pressure. Then they fell apart.<br /><br />He was good against the Sharks, I will admit, but they still weren't quite as good as Vancouver. On the other hand I don't assign much weight to his shutouts on Boston. Vancouver totally dominated the series in shots and quality of shots/scoring chances and Luongo was not tested at all in those two shutouts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-90284341889943687162011-12-16T01:26:18.203-05:002011-12-16T01:26:18.203-05:00Ever notice that virtually all of his "on&quo...<i>Ever notice that virtually all of his "on" days come against weak teams... the awful '09 Blues and offense-less '11 Preds come to mind?</i><br /><br />I'd certainly disagree with that. Luongo's had plenty of great performances against good teams. Just last year he was very good in the first three games against Chicago, he made 54 saves against San Jose in the series clinching game, he shut out Boston twice in the Finals.<br /><br />You might be able to make the case that Luongo has been more likely to have awful days against good teams than other goalies. But to claim that he has never been good against them is just selective memory.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-22875854738729584042011-12-16T00:59:48.121-05:002011-12-16T00:59:48.121-05:00me: I think the scoring chance numbers help remov...me: I think the scoring chance numbers help remove some of the team effects, and show how the Canucks did suppress shot quality against somewhat while playing with the lead. With a playoff sample we really don't have the option of comparing against backup goalies.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-46209608811430120062011-12-15T22:30:19.575-05:002011-12-15T22:30:19.575-05:00"I was never a real fan of his, but he used t..."I was never a real fan of his, but he used to be okay (CG and I might differ on what okay is, but he wasn't horrible). This year he just leapt off a cliff."<br /><br />He was very good the first couple months of 08-09. Then people got the book on him: high glove side. This was never more apparent than in the series against the Wings in the 09 playoffs.<br /><br />Then I guess you could make the argument he is averageish on a terrible team? CG might be able to give you more on Columbus shot quality against but I don't really see anything that screams good.<br /><br />"Ever notice that virtually all of his "on" days come against weak teams... the awful '09 Blues and offense-less '11 Preds come to mind? But he has struggled severely even with low-seeded clubs. One call going the other way in this year's Chicago series would have resulted in Luongo playing golf after the first round."<br /><br />This is hyperbole even for me. I will agree he is consistently good against those teams. Against better teams he seems to split the series couple giveaway games, couple games you can't lose and then a couple games that could go either way.<br /><br />The "knock" on him has been that he has never really dominated a series against an even team or better team. As CG has shown that doesn't happen often.Agent Orangehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11969608025201544178noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-35837740215944103452011-12-15T21:43:45.966-05:002011-12-15T21:43:45.966-05:00"Steve Mason has made more out of 2 months th..."Steve Mason has made more out of 2 months than anyone else I've ever seen."<br /><br />I was never a real fan of his, but he used to be okay (CG and I might differ on what okay is, but he wasn't horrible). This year he just leapt off a cliff.<br /><br />"But with Luongo it seems so extreme in the playoffs. When he is on he is unbeatable. But when he is bad he is so bad his team basically doesn't have a chance."<br /><br />Ever notice that virtually all of his "on" days come against weak teams... the awful '09 Blues and offense-less '11 Preds come to mind? But he has struggled severely even with low-seeded clubs. One call going the other way in this year's Chicago series would have resulted in Luongo playing golf after the first round.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-91308944856872075072011-12-15T20:19:21.335-05:002011-12-15T20:19:21.335-05:00Steve Mason has made more out of 2 months than any...Steve Mason has made more out of 2 months than anyone else I've ever seen.<br /><br />"I would still argue that Luongo's overall career playoff performance is reasonable relative to his true talent level, but has he ever had some forgettable single game performances on the way."<br /><br />Have you done any breakdowns of great/average/bad games by Luongo in the playoffs compared to the regular season?<br /><br />From my perspective it seems like Luongo has more of those forgettable games in the playoffs but that might just be the stage/level of competition.<br /><br />Of course all goalies have ups and downs and good games/bad games. But with Luongo it seems so extreme in the playoffs. When he is on he is unbeatable. But when he is bad he is so bad his team basically doesn't have a chance.Agent Orangehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11969608025201544178noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-67674895360978387122011-12-15T20:10:32.663-05:002011-12-15T20:10:32.663-05:00This is pretty fascinating stuff. I was wondering...This is pretty fascinating stuff. I was wondering though, is there a way to remove team affects? Obviously, in a game where Vancouver is winning, there is a higher likelihood that the team is playing well, and vice versa. As you well know, the correlation will not be 1, bu it's probably close.<br /><br />Two ways that immediately come to mind are: 1) look at top line/top d pairing +/- as a proxy (relying on the assumption that a team will have a better game if it's top pairing plays well) and 2) looking at the same stats for backups (presumably the team plays no worse or better in front of backups in a given game).mehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08055223057078438581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-33459365277394880872011-12-15T02:01:09.462-05:002011-12-15T02:01:09.462-05:00Mason wasn't even close to average in 2010 and...Mason wasn't even close to average in 2010 and 2011. A .901 save percentage is simply not good enough in a league where the average is in the .912-.913 range and starting goalies typically do even better than that. To put his numbers in perspective, here is how Mason ranked in save percentage in the league among goalies with at least 50 games played in the last 2 seasons:<br /><br />2009-10: 20th out of 20<br />2010-11: 24th out of 25<br /><br />That's why I expected him to be one of the worst starters in the league again this season, because that's what he has been for pretty much the last two and a half seasons. The fact that his play has actually declined this season compared to even that low starting point makes things just that much worse.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-37981577465179294932011-12-14T22:11:26.609-05:002011-12-14T22:11:26.609-05:00In 2010 and 2011, Mason was at least okay--nothing...In 2010 and 2011, Mason was at least okay--nothing great, but at least average. Why the severe dropoff in your view?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-61151355173068029402011-12-14T15:46:54.188-05:002011-12-14T15:46:54.188-05:00Anonymous: That's exactly the topic of an art...Anonymous: That's exactly the topic of an article I wrote for Hockey Prospectus that should be posted shortly, so I won't go into too much detail other than to say that I'd mostly bet on guys with an elite track record bouncing back, unless they happen to be 40+ years old.<br /><br />Steve Mason doesn't belong in that group though, I don't think many people saw him as above average or clutch even prior to this season. I expected him to be one of the worst goalies in the league this season and so far he has played in line with that expectation.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-8842771499186867252011-12-14T15:12:48.935-05:002011-12-14T15:12:48.935-05:00Good post, my only quibble is your final sentence ...Good post, my only quibble is your final sentence about his "overall career playoff performance". I would just add that the only reason he's had any recent (as in past two seasons) playoff success at all is that he's played behind Cadillac teams that vastly outclassed their opponents for both of those years, particularly the last. He has yet to take command of a single series where the other team was equal to Vancouver.<br /><br />Here's some food for thought for you to address in your next blog post. Why have so many very good goalies struggled so severely this season? Jonas Hiller, Ilya Bryzgalov, and Cam Ward, all of whom were elite minders for the past couple of seasons, have been well below average this year. You touched some on Hiller, who likely hasn't shaken off his vertigo/postconcussion syndrome, in an earlier post, but what of the other two?<br /><br />In addition, two minders widely considered to be better than average and often called "clutch", Dwayne Roloson and Steve Mason, are doing unbelievably horribly. <br /><br />Wanna touch any of that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com