tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post5385416514073331161..comments2024-03-18T05:15:00.024-04:00Comments on Brodeur is a Fraud: Goalie Performance on the RoadThe Contrarian Goaltenderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-32424787901781079312021-06-29T05:34:50.154-04:002021-06-29T05:34:50.154-04:00bape
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...<i>I thought shot quality was last year's theory</i><br /><br />Not at all. <a href="http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2011/1/13/1927696/the-2011-shot-quality-prize" rel="nofollow"> Gabe Desjardins just challenged the shot quality advocates</a> this morning by offering money from his own pocket if they offer can offer convincing supporting evidence, but in the comments to that post he makes it clear that, quote, "we know shot quality exists in a not terribly significant way."<br /><br />I'd modify that to include "in recent NHL seasons". It's fairly elementary to demonstrate that the '91-92 Sharks or the '76-77 Canadiens were shot quality outliers. If we're talking about the "top 4" goalies then our current assumptions do not necessarily hold for their entire careers.<br /><br />My assessment of the Devils' shot quality is based on more than merely opinion. Even if you ignore, among other things, the attempts to quantify percentage by shot location that typically ranked New Jersey at the top of the list, the subjective assessments of the their team defence, the save percentage effects that New Jersey coaches like Lemaire and Burns had outside of New Jersey, and if you even ignore the results of Devils backup goalies, there's still one fairly good reason to suggest New Jersey's shot quality was likely at least slightly easier than average, namely playing to the score effects.<br /><br />That save percentages rise on shots with a team in the lead has been clearly demonstrated in many different places. It's still not a huge effect in the aggregate, but like you say a thousandth here turns becomes a few extra wins over the course of a career.<br /><br />So I'm not sure it's fair to say that my claim was entirely opinion-based, especially given that your hypothesis has no data or evidence to support it (that I am aware of). Although I do think that discipline and penalties is certainly an area that needs to be studied more closely.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-91831793526678352902011-01-13T12:21:44.112-05:002011-01-13T12:21:44.112-05:00Those seem like reasonable assumptions. One or two...Those seem like reasonable assumptions. One or two basis points, which is not-insignificant in the realm of Sv%. After all, you're talking of "the elite" being in the realm of +.010.<br /><br />Your last comment about Devils' defensive play on the rest of the shots reads more like an opinion than fact-based like the rest of this piece. I thought shot-quality was last year's theory.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-66685968266887098302011-01-11T13:05:02.045-05:002011-01-11T13:05:02.045-05:00OK, let's continue the thought experiment. Si...OK, let's continue the thought experiment. Since 2000-01, the Devils have avoided one power play against per game compared to an average team, and Brodeur has faced 27.6 shots against per 60 minutes on the road. Assume that every extra penalty avoided allowed a prime scoring chance to take place, and that by taking the penalty the other team completely took away the scoring chance while Brodeur faced a 25% chance of getting scored on. That means an average goalie would be expected to have an EV SV% of .917, while Brodeur would be expected to end up at .910.<br /><br />That would be the absolute upper bound, but obviously those assumptions are highly unrealistic. If we assume instead that half of the penalties avoided were on scoring chances and that the other team's chance of scoring on those chances was 15%, then the expected EV SV% climbs to .9155.<br /><br />I really doubt it had much of an impact at all. Maybe it cost Brodeur a thousandth of a point on his EV SV%, but I'd still bet that the Devils defensive play on the rest of the shots against him gained him back at least that much and most likely more.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-9867400404514018942011-01-11T02:13:31.146-05:002011-01-11T02:13:31.146-05:00Hey CG, long time, no write. This is good stuff. I...Hey CG, long time, no write. This is good stuff. I've noticed the New Jersey shot recording bias before (way too low), I'm pretty sure we had an exchange or two about it. This seems to confirm it. <br /><br /><i>I think "not taking a penalty" is a huge and very underappreciated/underrecognized part of New Jersey's "system". Players must be taught in New Jersey that penalties are bad, and that as a rule, you shouldn't take them.</i><br /><br />I agree with this. Now here's my thought experiment: what if that discipline to not take a penalty is extended to good to very good, even great scoring opportunities. Where other teams would be happy to take what is frequently termed a "good penalty", the Devils are happy to roll the dice that their superstar goalie will make the save. While the fewer number of penalties will result in an improved Sv% on one side of the equation, the higher number of ten-bell opportunities will have the effect of lowering his EV Sv%. Which is fine, until you get analysts who tend to discard PP (or is it PK? I can never remember) Sv% and consider only EV Sv%, then the goalie whose team has such priorities will be unfairly punished. <br /><br />Impossible to prove, but worth considering IMO.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-20416526798164134452011-01-09T13:21:26.208-05:002011-01-09T13:21:26.208-05:00I'm not comfortable with discarding the home d...I'm not comfortable with discarding the home data entirely, no, this was in a way just a kind of thought experiment ("What if the home scorers are all completely biased?"). I agree that some goalies might just play better at home, and given that sample size is always a challenge in rating goalies it would certainly be best to not have to disregard 50% of the data.<br /><br />As you know there have been a bunch of different people who have looked at the issue of rink bias, and to be honest I'm just not sure that we have a good method yet to adjust for it. Total shots, GAA split, win/loss record, all of them could be just as much the team as the goalie.<br /><br />But yes, I do agree that it would be best to use the entire sample, we just have to figure out the best method for properly removing team effects from it.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-66325070745675783342011-01-09T13:10:27.756-05:002011-01-09T13:10:27.756-05:00Follow-up to the last comment: if you're not c...Follow-up to the last comment: if you're not comfortable using GAA because of team style, you could even look at W-L record. It exhibits different skew for different players (Kiprusoff, for example, has a 0.679 at home but 0.490 on the road).Tom Awadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09368984892070888703noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-14371125294528670212011-01-09T12:48:17.628-05:002011-01-09T12:48:17.628-05:00CG, excellent stuff. Question: would there be valu...CG, excellent stuff. Question: would there be value to "normalizing" the home data,<br />say with home/road GAA, and adding it in there? I'll explain why: let's suppose some<br />goaltenders, for whatever reason, have a bigger home/road skew. They know their boards,<br />are comfortable in their home arena, throw up when traveling, whatever. We are discarding<br />all the value they may be contributing at home. For example, Brodeur's GAA is only 0.14<br />lower at home, Belfour's is 0.15, Luongo's is 0.27, Roy's is 0.29, Vokoun's is 0.35.<br />There seems to be a correlation between positive/negative shocks on your list and <br />positive/negative improvement in home performance.Tom Awadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09368984892070888703noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-45211217019079194072011-01-07T16:16:08.647-05:002011-01-07T16:16:08.647-05:00Holding their home numbers constant, they were sho...<i>Holding their home numbers constant, they were shorthanded 26 times fewer than expected on the road, or about 2 per season.</i><br /><br />OK. Sorry, I should have given you the benefit of the doubt on that one, it didn't seem like the kind of mistake you would make.<br /><br />However, the discrepancy between your numbers and the 2004-10 numbers points out that New Jersey was not always the most disciplined team on the road from 1998-2002. Here are their rankings in fewest PPOA over those seasons:<br /><br />1998: 3rd<br />1999: 9th<br />2000: 10th<br />2001: 6th<br />2002: 1st<br /><br />Apparently Robbie Ftorek didn't care as much when his players took penalties, despite working as an assistant coach in New Jersey under Lemaire.<br /><br />Those years correspond pretty closely with Brodeur's mid-career dip. I think you're right that it might have been just randomness, team effects or scorer bias causing it rather than Brodeur's own play.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-48580723388676962152011-01-07T15:33:19.338-05:002011-01-07T15:33:19.338-05:00Overpass: Having a roughly equal number of PPOA at...<i>Overpass: Having a roughly equal number of PPOA at home and on the road means that a team was actually quite disciplined on the road, given that the road team typically gets whistled for more penalties.</i><br /><br />I should have been more clear: New Jersey appears to have pretty close to a typical home/road split. From 1998 to the present 48.3% of their PPOA came at home, compared to league average of 47.9. Holding their home numbers constant, they were shorthanded 26 times fewer than expected on the road, or about 2 per season.<br /><br />Thanks for the Brodeur numbers, BTW. The dip in the early 00s is still there, but those numbers are well within the range of random variation now. Which makes sense, since I've never heard any good reason for his play to have dropped off in those years.<br /><br /><i>Olaf Kolzig is another guy who had underwhelming results relative to his reputation on the road both overall and in a Vezina winning season (.903 in 1999-00).</i><br /><br />I always knew Belfour should have won that Vezina! Not that single season splits are necessarily significant, but when the numbers are that close already...<br /><br /><i>Reason being, I think "not taking a penalty" is a huge and very underappreciated/underrecognized part of New Jersey's "system". Players must be taught in New Jersey that penalties are bad, and that as a rule, you shouldn't take them.</i><br /><br />Yeah, you don't hear about it much but their record in this area is remarkable. Montreal was the same way from the late 70s to the early 90s, so it may be something Jacques Lemaire brought from Montreal, along with the trap.overpassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-5213563095308273922011-01-07T14:17:36.510-05:002011-01-07T14:17:36.510-05:00Overpass: Having a roughly equal number of PPOA a...Overpass: Having a roughly equal number of PPOA at home and on the road means that a team was actually quite disciplined on the road, given that the road team typically gets whistled for more penalties.<br /><br />I looked at NHL.com's numbers from 2004-2010 (I could have looked at more years but I had a specific interest in Calgary and Kiprusoff), and over that period road teams had 9% more power plays against. The Devils had a roughly equal split over that time as well, and they ranked second to only the Ottawa Senators in terms of the highest percentage of PPOA that came at home (OTT 49.6%, NJD 49.5%). That means New Jersey was relatively more disciplined on the road than at home.<br /><br />The Devils ranked #1 relative to league average in both locations, but to put it into perspective the Sens had the 6th most PPOA at home and the 19th most on the road.<br /><br />Other teams that were more disciplined on the road were Atlanta, Boston, Colorado and Tampa.<br /><br />Teams that were more disciplined at home included Buffalo, Columbus, Detroit, Edmonton, the Rangers, and, as I suspected, the Calgary Flames, who faced the 4th highest total of power plays against on the road but just the 18th highest number at home.<br /><br />Calgary had the second-most extreme home discipline split after the Buffalo Sabres. That actually surprised me a lot for reasons that will become more obvious when I talk about Ryan Miller in the next post in this series.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-39660655138310717472011-01-07T13:45:16.630-05:002011-01-07T13:45:16.630-05:00I'll see if I can find a way to quickly aggreg...I'll see if I can find a way to quickly aggregate the penalties data. I could definitely do a specific look at the Devils, but the thing is that it's kind of meaningless to run the numbers just for them with no context to evaluate the relative frequencies of obstruction/aggression/stick fouls/whatever else. With all the numbers though then that would be interesting to see how teams differed in what they were called for.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-67810324927131377582011-01-07T13:19:36.961-05:002011-01-07T13:19:36.961-05:00that would be interesting. Prior to such analysis ...that would be interesting. Prior to such analysis being done, I'm going to guess that it's a combination of both obstruction and aggression penalties. Reason being, I think "not taking a penalty" is a huge and very underappreciated/underrecognized part of New Jersey's "system". Players must be taught in New Jersey that penalties are bad, and that as a rule, you shouldn't take them.James Beneshnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-14159766681458757802011-01-07T12:38:47.716-05:002011-01-07T12:38:47.716-05:00You can also check nhl.com for road times shorthan...You can also check nhl.com for road times shorthanded since 1997-98 (go to team stats, penalty kill). I glanced over the numbers there, and it appears that the Devils are equally disciplined at home and on the road over this time. If the Devils haven't had a persistent skill in this area, it's unlikely that any team has.<br /><br />If you're running a look at penalties from the HSP, it would be cool to see what types of penalties the Devils take, and in what way they have been disciplined. But only if you have the data easily available.overpassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-20763601768645279662011-01-07T11:42:46.532-05:002011-01-07T11:42:46.532-05:00James Benesh:
It is true the Devils have been a...James Benesh: <br /><br />It is true the Devils have been a top road team. Compare the road win/loss records of the top 5:<br /><br />Hasek: 152-136-52<br />Roy: 186-159-54<br />Brodeur: 272-177-75<br />Belfour: 206-172-55<br />Luongo: 108-134-32<br /><br />Obviously New Jersey is the outlier there.<br /><br />Looking at road numbers should remove any scorer bias, but it doesn't remove all team effects. A deeper analysis of things like PP opportunities against and the performance of backup goalies could shed additional light on each goalie's team context.<br /><br />There is a way to check PP opportunities on the road, it requires sorting through the penalty record on the Hockey Summary Project, removing coincidental penalties and misconducts and counting the rest. I'm fine-tuning a spreadsheet that takes care of that for me, I definitely think there would be value in having those numbers as from there I could estimate a road even-strength save percentage that would put everyone on even more equal terms in this analysis.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-16712842732355129182011-01-07T11:13:32.968-05:002011-01-07T11:13:32.968-05:00Anonymous: If you run this same analysis on Crist...Anonymous: If you run this same analysis on Cristobal Huet, he comes out at almost exactly average on the road. I'll talk about him in a bit more detail in my next post.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-63020070878347382692011-01-07T10:34:32.543-05:002011-01-07T10:34:32.543-05:00I wonder how much of this has to do with New Jerse...I wonder how much of this has to do with New Jersey's infamous "road game" and how simple they keep things. They've famously been the best road team for a long time, haven't they? Also, is there a way to check if they give the opposition fewer PP opportunities while on the road? That's a sv% boosting tactic for sure.James Beneshnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-18511098673271204012011-01-07T05:01:07.660-05:002011-01-07T05:01:07.660-05:00Good stuff here.
I agree with you that, while the...Good stuff here.<br /><br />I agree with you that, while the assertion of recording bias with respect to shots on goal is uncontroversial, it's difficult to actually identify the specific rinks that undercount or overcount shots, aside from the obvious cases.<br /><br />For that reason, I think that simply looking at road totals is the best approach for an exercise such as this, rather than making an adjustment to overall totals (the latter being the approach I've used in the past).JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-45925513042495928482011-01-07T00:43:14.750-05:002011-01-07T00:43:14.750-05:00Very well thought-out post. Naturally the team tha...Very well thought-out post. Naturally the team that comes to mind most in terms of "cooking the books" for shot totals is the Rangers, but your analysis has shown that many teams may be doing this sort of thing.<br /><br />Question for you: what do you think has happened to Cristobal Huet's career? He was one of the league's better minders for several years, then became average and below-average quite suddenly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-32048972606846322052011-01-07T00:20:42.138-05:002011-01-07T00:20:42.138-05:00Haven't run any distribution tests yet but I p...Haven't run any distribution tests yet but I probably should.<br /><br />Here are Brodeur's road goals saved above average numbers by year:<br /><br />1994: 14.7<br />1995: -7.5<br />1996: 16.9<br />1997: 13.4<br />1998: 14.0<br />1999: 7.3<br />2000: 3.5<br />2001: 3.1<br />2002: 0.1<br />2003: 11.6<br />2004: 15.9<br />2006: 9.6<br />2007: 25.4<br />2008: 13.1<br />2009: -2.3<br />2010: 7.8<br /><br />The upside-down career curve is still there, the difference is that the "down" part of it is shortened somewhat by Brodeur's improved results in 2002-03 and 2003-04. If there was a major scorer bias issue in those seasons in New Jersey than he may have a stronger claim to his Vezinas from those two seasons than the overall numbers suggest.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-30107988646343310132011-01-06T23:36:13.403-05:002011-01-06T23:36:13.403-05:00Pretty cool. The idea behind it seems sound.
Have...Pretty cool. The idea behind it seems sound.<br /><br />Have you run any tests to see if the distribution of home/road differences is different than a random distribution, and if so, how different?<br /><br />Regarding the results, it's interesting how tight the top of the goalie list is, at least in regular season career value. These numbers definitely boost Brodeur. Do they flatten his upside down career curve?overpassnoreply@blogger.com