tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post8301856908816238904..comments2024-03-18T05:15:00.024-04:00Comments on Brodeur is a Fraud: Shots and Save Percentage RevisitedThe Contrarian Goaltenderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-53785114867579881922012-12-12T08:26:49.704-05:002012-12-12T08:26:49.704-05:00For 2012:
Above av amount of min (1675.6) & Ab...For 2012:<br />Above av amount of min (1675.6) & Above av amount of sh/60 (29.3)<br />Save% of .913<br /><br />Above & Below: Save% of .915<br /><br />less shots/60 has a better Save%<br />--------------------------------<br />For 2011: (1712.7) & (30.0)<br />Above & Above: Save% of .916<br />Above & Below: Save% of .914<br /><br />more shots/60 has a better Sv%<br />--------------------------------<br />These are stats for the two most recent seasons, as of this post. One says that facing more shots will give you a better chance at a good Save%, one says that facing less shots will. I was just thinking that a goalie may face 25 shots/60 like Brodeur but he also may face 20 in one game and 30 in another. Game by game, and different game scenarios, a Save% may fluctuate, but, at the end of the season, it all equals out. I don't think there's much of a correlation between shots and Save% over an entire season. I think if I did this with more seasons, I would get a fairly even split. The best goalies are still the goalies with higher Save%s, whether or not the face 25 or 35 per game.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-67727397467493713082009-01-19T22:39:00.000-05:002009-01-19T22:39:00.000-05:00@Contrarian: I recently consulted with my physiolo...@Contrarian: I recently consulted with my physiology prof (and lab supervisor) on the subject of goaltending, and put together <A HREF="http://www.stillnoname.com/articles/show/60" REL="nofollow">this article</A>. The bit that's relevant to this post is about muscle fibre recruitment, and how it could explain some of the trend towards high save percentages with high shot totals. Obviously, when you're already down in the third, psychologically it may not be there regardless, especially if you continue to get no help, but being physiologically, as well as psychologically, ready may at least help explain the effect.Doogie2Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14703778878103452453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-75286642438248884242009-01-19T21:51:00.000-05:002009-01-19T21:51:00.000-05:00Anonymous: There is certainly a relationship betw...Anonymous: There is certainly a relationship between GAA and save percentage. That is because save percentage is a component of GAA.<BR/><BR/>GAA = (1 - Save Percentage) x Shots Against Per Game<BR/><BR/>Therefore, GAA is just another way of expressing save percentage, but there is an additional factor of the number of shots against, which most people would agree is mostly determined by the rest of the team.<BR/><BR/>That is why I don't like GAA - we have save percentage, why should we muck it up by adding an extra variable that the goalie has little control over (i.e. shots against?)<BR/><BR/>Now a goalie with an average shots against total will usually end up ranked in a similar spot in both GAA and save percentage for that reason. There will always be a few goalies, however, who face unusually few or many shots and therefore will be ranked very differently in GAA and save percentage.<BR/><BR/>I agree with you that save percentage is team-influenced, but that is because teams allow different types of shots to get through, not because there is often similarities in rankings between goalies in terms of both GAA and save percentage.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-35258969908300123432009-01-19T01:40:00.000-05:002009-01-19T01:40:00.000-05:00I know you have done a little bit of work determin...I know you have done a little bit of work determining the relationship between each of the individual goal statistics and their influence upon each other, so maybe you could do a follow up, or at least give you 2 cents on this. I believe you mentioned, and I will agree, that GAA is largely team influenced, and save percentage is not. However, I have noticed that very often, a goalies league rank in one category, is very close, if not often exactly the same in the other. Thus, whatever the reason may be, there would definitely be some sort of relation between the two. If I had to guess, I would say that save percentage is more team influenced than we like to admit. Now, this is not always the case, but way more often than not it is, and I find it interested to note that if the league ranks for one, often indicate where a goalie will measure up in the other, than there is without a doubt relation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-52655860920034752852009-01-19T00:23:00.000-05:002009-01-19T00:23:00.000-05:00I stopped reading at "although we have to be a bit...I stopped reading at "although we have to be a bit careful with conclusions from this sample since the numbers reflect the performances of just 5 goalies playing on 10 different franchises."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-7238186144046003182009-01-16T18:29:00.000-05:002009-01-16T18:29:00.000-05:00Yes, I'm definitely looking forward to seeing the ...Yes, I'm definitely looking forward to seeing the results when somebody does a detailed play-by-play breakdown. Especially if they do some of the things I suggested to try to analyze the root causes of shots/save percentage relationship.<BR/><BR/><I>Are you referring to the "credit" that goes with a higher Sv% even though it might be influenced by circumstances, or the "credit" that is assigned by folks like me to the goalie's personal impact on the flow of play. I could read this either way. And I daresay the truth, as usual, lies somewhere in the middle.</I><BR/><BR/>I had in mind the the issue of assessing a goalie's impact on flow of play through shot totals, but you are correct that save percentages could also be affected by either scenario.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-55843033446388829702009-01-16T14:14:00.000-05:002009-01-16T14:14:00.000-05:00CG: More excellent work. I agree with your caution...CG: More excellent work. I agree with your caution about how to interpret the various bits of information, all your caveats are certainly worth considering and speak to the complexity of the game and its analysis. <BR/><BR/>For now just one question, about your very last comment:<BR/><BR/><I>it seems to me a bit unfair to give the goalie <B>the credit or blame</B> for that extra shot differential.</I> <BR/><BR/>Are you referring to the "credit" that goes with a higher Sv% even though it might be influenced by circumstances, or the "credit" that is assigned by folks like me to the goalie's personal impact on the flow of play. I could read this either way. And I daresay the truth, as usual, lies somewhere in the middle. <BR/><BR/>One of these days one of the code guys is going to figure out how to strip shots/goals by game score right out of the play-by-play data, which should provide an exponentially higher degree of resolution on the effect of game state on shots. But this brute force study you've undertaken is an excellent step.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.com