Some hockey fans think playoff wins are the best way to evaluate a goalie. The other stats don't matter, they say, because it doesn't matter how many saves you make but when you make them, and the teams that win are the teams that get important saves from their goaltenders at the most important times in the game. This means that stats are just excuses for losers. If those goalies played better when the game mattered then their team would have won.
I've already dealt with some of the "big saves" argument in this post that points out that most of the game of hockey is played with the score close. However, it remains at least theoretically possible that teams and goalies could optimize their goals for and against to improve upon their win/loss record. Hockey games are won and lost by goals for and goals against, but a team that wins the first game of a playoff series 8-0 and loses the second 2-1 has the same record as their opponents, despite a much better goal differential. We know from observed results that in the long run most of those differences even out and that records can usually be predicted quite accurately by goal differential. However, the possibility does remain, no matter how rare it might be, that a goalie could "stretch" their teams' goals farther than normal and win more games by playing better in key situations.
It seems unlikely to me in today's widely-televised, big-money NHL that a goalie would be goofing off when it didn't matter and bearing down only when it did, but what about the goalies of yesteryear who were playing for fun and had to work other jobs in the offseason? Did some of them only care about winning and adjust their effort accordingly? If that was the case, then maybe they could be legitimately considered better than another goalie with equivalent stats because they did more to help their team win hockey games. Is this something that goalies actually do or have done in the NHL playoffs?
I've already dealt with some of the "big saves" argument in this post that points out that most of the game of hockey is played with the score close. However, it remains at least theoretically possible that teams and goalies could optimize their goals for and against to improve upon their win/loss record. Hockey games are won and lost by goals for and goals against, but a team that wins the first game of a playoff series 8-0 and loses the second 2-1 has the same record as their opponents, despite a much better goal differential. We know from observed results that in the long run most of those differences even out and that records can usually be predicted quite accurately by goal differential. However, the possibility does remain, no matter how rare it might be, that a goalie could "stretch" their teams' goals farther than normal and win more games by playing better in key situations.
It seems unlikely to me in today's widely-televised, big-money NHL that a goalie would be goofing off when it didn't matter and bearing down only when it did, but what about the goalies of yesteryear who were playing for fun and had to work other jobs in the offseason? Did some of them only care about winning and adjust their effort accordingly? If that was the case, then maybe they could be legitimately considered better than another goalie with equivalent stats because they did more to help their team win hockey games. Is this something that goalies actually do or have done in the NHL playoffs?
The Pythagorean expected points equation (GF^2/(GF^2+GA^2)) allows us to predict what a team's record will be given their goals for and against. If a goalie has exceptional timing in terms of allowing goals, then they will allow more goals when it doesn't matter and fewer when it does matter. Doing this should allow the team to outperform its expected win total.
Let's give an example: If a goalie plays in 20 playoff games and his team scores 50 goals and allows 50 against, then it is difficult to claim that the goalie is a clutch winner if his team's record is 10-10. That is of course exactly where we would expect the team to end up. If they instead are 15-5, then that must mean they were winning small and losing big, and either they got lucky or the skaters and/or the goalie were doing more to contribute to winning than the basic stats would suggest.
For each playoff season where the goalie played over half of his team's minutes in the playoffs, I took the total goals for and against during that playoff season, used that to project the team's record, and then compared it to their actual wins and losses. Over their entire career we can see if their teams did better or worse than expected. I wasn't able to split out individual goalie performance because game summaries aren't always available, but this shouldn't have big effect since most would have played the vast majority of their teams' minutes.
This makes for a very simple analysis, as all we need are win/loss records and goals for and against. We can thus compare goalies throughout the entire history of the league, all the way from Benedict to Brodeur, including goalies from the early years for whom we have no shot data or save percentage stats available.
Great teams tend to overperform their expected win rate, especially in the playoffs. This is mainly because teams tend to play to the score more in the postseason. If they gave it a full effort for the entire 60 minutes, a dynasty team would likely blow out their opponents by an even greater margin that might be more representative of their actual dominance, but teams that are ahead usually trade offence for defence to increase the chances of holding onto their lead. Therefore goalies who played on very strong teams would quite possibly show good results here even if their own performance was consistent across different game situations.
Just to be clear, this metric has little to do with a goalie's overall performance. A good or bad result doesn't prove anything, but only tells us where to take a closer look if we are trying to see if some goalies contributed more to winning games than their basic stats would imply. A more in-depth analysis would be required to confirm or deny the hypothesis. I'm not at all convinced that any goalies have consistently shown good timing or an unusual ability to raise their level of play in high-leverage spots. I think the ability of the rest of the team to play to the score is likely far more important than a goalie's clutch performance. Some (maybe even most) of these results might be entirely because of team factors, and some of these results might be entirely because of luck. Be aware of that as you draw your conclusions.
Let's give an example: If a goalie plays in 20 playoff games and his team scores 50 goals and allows 50 against, then it is difficult to claim that the goalie is a clutch winner if his team's record is 10-10. That is of course exactly where we would expect the team to end up. If they instead are 15-5, then that must mean they were winning small and losing big, and either they got lucky or the skaters and/or the goalie were doing more to contribute to winning than the basic stats would suggest.
For each playoff season where the goalie played over half of his team's minutes in the playoffs, I took the total goals for and against during that playoff season, used that to project the team's record, and then compared it to their actual wins and losses. Over their entire career we can see if their teams did better or worse than expected. I wasn't able to split out individual goalie performance because game summaries aren't always available, but this shouldn't have big effect since most would have played the vast majority of their teams' minutes.
This makes for a very simple analysis, as all we need are win/loss records and goals for and against. We can thus compare goalies throughout the entire history of the league, all the way from Benedict to Brodeur, including goalies from the early years for whom we have no shot data or save percentage stats available.
Great teams tend to overperform their expected win rate, especially in the playoffs. This is mainly because teams tend to play to the score more in the postseason. If they gave it a full effort for the entire 60 minutes, a dynasty team would likely blow out their opponents by an even greater margin that might be more representative of their actual dominance, but teams that are ahead usually trade offence for defence to increase the chances of holding onto their lead. Therefore goalies who played on very strong teams would quite possibly show good results here even if their own performance was consistent across different game situations.
Just to be clear, this metric has little to do with a goalie's overall performance. A good or bad result doesn't prove anything, but only tells us where to take a closer look if we are trying to see if some goalies contributed more to winning games than their basic stats would imply. A more in-depth analysis would be required to confirm or deny the hypothesis. I'm not at all convinced that any goalies have consistently shown good timing or an unusual ability to raise their level of play in high-leverage spots. I think the ability of the rest of the team to play to the score is likely far more important than a goalie's clutch performance. Some (maybe even most) of these results might be entirely because of team factors, and some of these results might be entirely because of luck. Be aware of that as you draw your conclusions.
The Clutch Performers:
Billy Smith (+12.8), Grant Fuhr (+12.8), Patrick Roy (+12.7), Ken Dryden (+11.6)
All of these guys are well known for their playoff successes. They were all probably above average in the postseason, but they all also had the benefit of playing most of their playoff careers on very strong teams.
I have already looked at some of Grant Fuhr's peak playoff seasons in Edmonton in some detail, as well as Patrick Roy's later career. I don't think the evidence suggests that either of them were making a huge impact on their team's win/loss record by making the so-called "big saves". I think the Oilers and the Avalanche were similar in that they were both high-percentage scoring teams that did not dominate on the shot clock and played to the score, which is the kind of team that might very well win more than their goal differential suggests. I would be interested to look at Roy's Montreal game results in more detail, but unfortunately most of those box scores aren't readily available at the moment.
Fuhr and Smith are goalies who are usually subjectively rated well above what the statistical record suggests they deserve. Just like Brodeur, that makes them interesting objects of study, to try to assess whether there is something extra hidden in the numbers. I'm still not entirely sure what to make of Smith, I'm always skeptical about goalies who have reputations that depend primarily on their team playoff successes. However unlike Fuhr Smith actually has a pretty strong save percentage record, although he played mostly in a diluted league and didn't outperform his backups which suggests that there was a strong team context.
The Strong Performers:
J.S. Giguere (+7.3), Jacques Plante (+6.8), Turk Broda (+5.8), Gump Worsley (+4.5), Marc-Andre Fleury (+4.0)
Giguere has a win total that is far above expected, primarily as a result of his 12-1 record in OT games. I don't know whether he is going to be able to keep repeating that close game success, but it is impossible to deny that Giguere has had some great clutch performances to this point. Broda is considered to be one of the best playoff goalies ever, so I was expecting him to do well by this measure. Worsley does surprisingly well although his outperformance is nearly entirely on the Canadiens, which suggests that his team was helping, something we should also keep in mind when evaluating his Montreal predecessor Jacques Plante.
The Solid Performers:
Ed Belfour (+3.8), Gerry Cheevers (+3.3), Mike Vernon (+2.8), Terry Sawchuk (+2.6), Tom Barrasso (+2.4), Rogie Vachon (+1.9), Cam Ward (+1.9), Dominik Hasek (+1.6), Andy Moog (+1.2), Bernie Parent (+1.0), Frank Brimsek (+0.9), Ron Hextall (+0.9), Martin Brodeur (+0.8), Evgeni Nabokov (+0.7)
Considering his teams I don't think Cheevers' playoff record is all that special. Barrasso's position is entirely from the 1991 and 1992 Cup runs (+5.8 wins in '91/'92, -3.3 wins for the rest of his career). Who was the real clutch player, Barrasso or Mario? I know what my guess would be. I don't think many observers would consider Andy Moog clutch, but he won more than expected, suggesting that his Edmonton or Boston teammates were good at playing to the score.
I was expecting Hasek, Brimsek and Parent to finish a bit higher than they did. In fact, Hasek's relatively ordinary ranking suggests to me that these results have a lot more to do with the team than the goalie. With Hasek in net the Sabres won pretty much exactly what they were projected to win, even though Hasek had an astonishing .949 combined save percentage in Buffalo in overtime and in third periods that began tied or with the teams within one goal of each other. Hasek was also almost unbeatable when Buffalo was ahead late in the game (the numbers are all in this post). It's pretty hard to get much more clutch than that, and yet if you plug Buffalo's goals for and goals against into the Pythagorean formula you get a winning percentage that is within .002 of the actual observed result.
The Average Performers:
Chris Osgood (+0.2), Mike Richter (+0.1), Roberto Luongo (+0.1), Bill Durnan (-0.1), Johnny Bower (-0.2)
All of these guys won pretty much exactly as much as the goals for and goals against predict they should have. Again that doesn't mean they didn't play well, just that there is little evidence to suggest that their teams won more games than they should have with them in net. Therefore to me it makes sense to base our evaluation of them on statistical measures of their individual performance rather than their team success. Chris Osgood may have a lot of playoff wins and Cup rings, but that doesn't mean he is an unusually clutch player. The opposite would apply for Roberto Luongo.
Below Average Performers:
Clint Benedict (-0.7), Mike Liut (-0.9), George Hainsworth (-1.1), Tiny Thompson (-1.3), John Vanbiesbrouck (-1.4), Glenn Hall (-1.8), Ed Giacomin (-1.9), Tony Esposito (-2.3), Curtis Joseph (-2.8)
Several of these goalies have reputations for playing poorly in the playoffs (especially Hall, Giacomin, Esposito, Cujo). I've looked at Joseph's results in some detail and I think that some of his underperformance is the fault of the scorers in front of him, although he has not done particularly well in some high-leverage situations such as playoff OT. Similarly, I think Glenn Hall's teammates are likely more to blame than he is. On the other hand, Giacomin and Esposito both had some weak playoff seasons on strong teams.
The Worst Clutch Goalie?
Harry Lumley (-5.5)
Lumley's teams had a winning percentage that was .073 below what was expected based on their goal differential, which suggests something was going very wrong in those tight games. Whether he was a choker or merely the most unlucky one in this group I'm not sure, but given that he played for three different franchises and was mostly on good teams it's possible Lumley had something to do with it.
(Post edited to reflect mistake with Martin Brodeur's numbers)
Giguere has a win total that is far above expected, primarily as a result of his 12-1 record in OT games. I don't know whether he is going to be able to keep repeating that close game success, but it is impossible to deny that Giguere has had some great clutch performances to this point. Broda is considered to be one of the best playoff goalies ever, so I was expecting him to do well by this measure. Worsley does surprisingly well although his outperformance is nearly entirely on the Canadiens, which suggests that his team was helping, something we should also keep in mind when evaluating his Montreal predecessor Jacques Plante.
The Solid Performers:
Ed Belfour (+3.8), Gerry Cheevers (+3.3), Mike Vernon (+2.8), Terry Sawchuk (+2.6), Tom Barrasso (+2.4), Rogie Vachon (+1.9), Cam Ward (+1.9), Dominik Hasek (+1.6), Andy Moog (+1.2), Bernie Parent (+1.0), Frank Brimsek (+0.9), Ron Hextall (+0.9), Martin Brodeur (+0.8), Evgeni Nabokov (+0.7)
Considering his teams I don't think Cheevers' playoff record is all that special. Barrasso's position is entirely from the 1991 and 1992 Cup runs (+5.8 wins in '91/'92, -3.3 wins for the rest of his career). Who was the real clutch player, Barrasso or Mario? I know what my guess would be. I don't think many observers would consider Andy Moog clutch, but he won more than expected, suggesting that his Edmonton or Boston teammates were good at playing to the score.
I was expecting Hasek, Brimsek and Parent to finish a bit higher than they did. In fact, Hasek's relatively ordinary ranking suggests to me that these results have a lot more to do with the team than the goalie. With Hasek in net the Sabres won pretty much exactly what they were projected to win, even though Hasek had an astonishing .949 combined save percentage in Buffalo in overtime and in third periods that began tied or with the teams within one goal of each other. Hasek was also almost unbeatable when Buffalo was ahead late in the game (the numbers are all in this post). It's pretty hard to get much more clutch than that, and yet if you plug Buffalo's goals for and goals against into the Pythagorean formula you get a winning percentage that is within .002 of the actual observed result.
The Average Performers:
Chris Osgood (+0.2), Mike Richter (+0.1), Roberto Luongo (+0.1), Bill Durnan (-0.1), Johnny Bower (-0.2)
All of these guys won pretty much exactly as much as the goals for and goals against predict they should have. Again that doesn't mean they didn't play well, just that there is little evidence to suggest that their teams won more games than they should have with them in net. Therefore to me it makes sense to base our evaluation of them on statistical measures of their individual performance rather than their team success. Chris Osgood may have a lot of playoff wins and Cup rings, but that doesn't mean he is an unusually clutch player. The opposite would apply for Roberto Luongo.
Below Average Performers:
Clint Benedict (-0.7), Mike Liut (-0.9), George Hainsworth (-1.1), Tiny Thompson (-1.3), John Vanbiesbrouck (-1.4), Glenn Hall (-1.8), Ed Giacomin (-1.9), Tony Esposito (-2.3), Curtis Joseph (-2.8)
Several of these goalies have reputations for playing poorly in the playoffs (especially Hall, Giacomin, Esposito, Cujo). I've looked at Joseph's results in some detail and I think that some of his underperformance is the fault of the scorers in front of him, although he has not done particularly well in some high-leverage situations such as playoff OT. Similarly, I think Glenn Hall's teammates are likely more to blame than he is. On the other hand, Giacomin and Esposito both had some weak playoff seasons on strong teams.
The Worst Clutch Goalie?
Harry Lumley (-5.5)
Lumley's teams had a winning percentage that was .073 below what was expected based on their goal differential, which suggests something was going very wrong in those tight games. Whether he was a choker or merely the most unlucky one in this group I'm not sure, but given that he played for three different franchises and was mostly on good teams it's possible Lumley had something to do with it.
(Post edited to reflect mistake with Martin Brodeur's numbers)