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Similarly, the trailing team started putting more shots on net. Interestingly, however, save percentage went up and so did shooting percentage, implying that the trailing team is taking more shots of lower quality, whereas the leading team is generating higher-than normal shot quality. </I><BR/><BR/>I think there is a great deal to be learned here about both shot quantity and quality, a subject I have raised many times in this and other fora. <BR/><BR/>Your methodology -- score after 40 minutes -- is crude but nonetheless should capture the essence of the relationship between game state and shots. <BR/><BR/>My multiple studies on the subject have shown there is only a mild relationship between outshooting and winning, something under 55% on a league-wide basis. The correlation is actually negative for some teams, notably my Edmonton Oilers throughout most of their history, from the storied dynasty of the 1980s to the battling-for-8th Oilers of the Lowe-MacTavish era. <BR/><BR/>At one point the discussion with the IOF types -- who have deep insights into the issue even as they may not (yet) have all the answers :) -- carried into the realm of game states. MC79 among others spoke of the importance of special teams shots, while I countered that I thought game score was even more important. Namely that the trailing team generates more shots, often way more, while allowing higher quality chances against. <BR/><BR/>Vic Ferrari stripped out shots by game score from the play-by-play, but the only numbers that he posted (that I saw) were shots when the game was tied. As I recall that was pretty reflective of shots overall. Where I would expect a big effect would be shots when the score is NOT tied, and your data addresses this. Imperfectly -- esp. until those empty-netters are accounted for, which expressed as a percentage of goals scored in the third period by the team leading by one after the second, would be significant -- but the effect is clear. The trailing team carries the play, but isn't necessarily rewarded for doing so. <BR/><BR/>All of which (still) draws into question the relevance of such shot-based measurements as Save Percentage and Corsi numbers. Does a team like Columbus Blue Jackets have <A HREF="http://timeonice.com/playershots.php?team=CBJ&first=20001&last=21230" REL="nofollow"> great Corsi numbers</A> because they're a great team, because they've got a system-oriented coach, or because they're always trying to come from behind? (Give the link a minute to load, but it's an eye-popper when you get there.) <BR/><BR/><I>If you're listing him as "debateable" because of how you feel his chances of getting in are, and not what the statistics tell you, then you'd still most likely be wrong.</I><BR/><BR/>Bill Morran: On this we entirely agree. Whatever the "cognoscenti of the cord cottage" might think about Wins, 450 of them is enough to impress the voters. In terms of rarity it's roughly the equivalent of 700 goals, no mean feat in any era. I would myself vote for Joseph, but not on the first ballot (which I would reserve for truly extraordinary players, which he is not).Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-70858884804569583992009-01-08T14:32:00.000-05:002009-01-08T14:32:00.000-05:00I'm going back through the data to remove all empt...I'm going back through the data to remove all empty net goals before I post the individual goalie stats.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-49565594614248192642009-01-08T12:00:00.000-05:002009-01-08T12:00:00.000-05:00Great info. The only comment I was going to make, ...Great info. The only comment I was going to make, that I caught right away, is the empty net goal factor. This is definitely having a large effect on the shot percentage of the team leading going into the 3rd.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-25028554973971324532009-01-06T23:42:00.000-05:002009-01-06T23:42:00.000-05:00Anonymous: Thanks for the suggestion, I'll keep a...Anonymous: Thanks for the suggestion, I'll keep a closer eye on some of the comments I'm getting, especially on older posts.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-57251028070780143892009-01-06T22:51:00.000-05:002009-01-06T22:51:00.000-05:00I listed him as "debateable" because people who kn...I listed him as "debateable" because people who know more than I do about HHOF procedures seem to think he is a borderline candidate and may not be voted in. I think Cujo was a very good goalie and one of the 5 best goalies of his era, so he'd probably get my vote.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-16874408265575626832009-01-06T22:30:00.000-05:002009-01-06T22:30:00.000-05:00I don't know how you have Joseph listed as "debate...I don't know how you have Joseph listed as "debateable". This guy carried the Leafs during their best years since 1967 was one of the top goalies in the NHL for more than 10 years. His numbers are incredibly compareable to the other four, but he played for worse teams.<BR/><BR/>If you're listing him as "debateable" because of how you feel his chances of getting in are, and not what the statistics tell you, then you'd still most likely be wrong. Even if he was a border line HOFer statistically, East Coast bias and Leaf love from Hall of Fame voters will get him in.Bill Morranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07047482409887044804noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-86450707632898347492009-01-06T17:59:00.001-05:002009-01-06T17:59:00.001-05:00Just a suggestion. Since it seems you have editing...Just a suggestion. Since it seems you have editing powers as the owner of this blog, it wouldnt hurt the credibility of your research to do a better job editing and perhaps cleaning up this site. There is a lot of excellent research(albeit in some cases biased) yet this site appears to be more of a troll harbor than anything. I have no idea what your purpose for doing all of your research would be, but in any event i dont see how it makes sense to do hours of writing and analysis, only to have a few childish trolls constantly quarreling with each other, or other users who would like to engage in adult conversations.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-34663476732352990632009-01-06T17:59:00.000-05:002009-01-06T17:59:00.000-05:00Just a suggestion. Since it seems you have editing...Just a suggestion. Since it seems you have editing powers as the owner of this blog, it wouldnt hurt the credibility of your research to do a better job editing and perhaps cleaning up this site. There is a lot of excellent research(albeit in some cases biased) yet this site appears to be more of a troll harbor than anything. I have no idea what your purpose for doing all of your research would be, but in any event i dont see how it makes sense to do hours of writing and analysis, only to have a few childish trolls constantly quarreling with each other, or other users who would like to engage in adult conversations.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-57205563654865608432009-01-06T02:42:00.000-05:002009-01-06T02:42:00.000-05:00I really must thank Matt from the Battle of Albert...I really must thank Matt from the Battle of Alberta blog for linking to you. Your stuff on Brodeur is terribly amusing; the hockey equivalent of the film Loose Change. Keep it up!NRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04360395755751379669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-69882235605821427652009-01-05T22:54:00.000-05:002009-01-05T22:54:00.000-05:00I eliminated empty net goals allowed, as they were...I eliminated empty net goals allowed, as they were easy to check against the goalies' stats, but empty net goals scored are still in there. You are right, that would have had an effect on the shooting percentage for the leading team.<BR/><BR/>I'm still not sure about the overall save percentage effects of a strong team (if any). It apparently helps you in the third period, but I'm not sure about earlier in the game. One thing I plan to look at in more detail with this sample is the relationship between number of shots against and save percentage during the first two periods, when the score isn't likely to be dictating the style of play as much.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-64975805428605065872009-01-05T22:37:00.000-05:002009-01-05T22:37:00.000-05:00Highly interesting.One question: did you filter ou...Highly interesting.<BR/><BR/>One question: did you filter out empty net goals when doing the analysis? If not, this might (partially) explain why the team leading at the end of the 2nd period experiences an increase in its shooting/save percentage. <BR/><BR/>In any event, to the extent that the effect is real (which I believe it is), it appears that it's easier to have higher save percentage playing for a good team, as a stronger team will tend to be leading much more often over the course of a season than a weak team will.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com