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Do you have boxscore data for the playoff g...Bruce<br /><br />Do you have boxscore data for the playoff games?<br /><br />I want to confirm for myself the shots against Fuhr in those Kings games.<br /><br />Based on you comment of 107 shots in 3 games that is an average of just under 34/60. This is pretty close to Fuhr regular season but would mean in the rest of the playoffs teams averaged ~28 shots against.<br /><br />These would be better teams than the kings that got 3 wins.<br /><br />I did a quick check and it looks like the oilers margin of victory was ~3.0 gpg in wins only. This was inflated by some big wins against chicago.<br /><br />Please let me know if you have a source for playoff box scores.Agent Orangehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11969608025201544178noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-10099263437236421552009-01-08T16:31:00.000-05:002009-01-08T16:31:00.000-05:00My pt is that keeping your team in the game(s) aga...My pt is that keeping your team in the game(s) against a team that is barely above .500 is probably not as significant as doing so against, e.g., the 75-76 Canadiens (Tretiak, New Yrs Eve).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-30882059519633343742009-01-07T17:52:00.000-05:002009-01-07T17:52:00.000-05:00Anonymous: So what's your point?Mine is that goalt...Anonymous: So what's your point?<BR/><BR/>Mine is that goaltending won that series for the Oilers. And if they hadn't won that series, they probably :) wouldn't have won the Stanley Cup. <BR/><BR/>Inferior clubs win in the playoffs all the time, as the Kings had proven in their previous meeting with the overdog Oilers. In '85 Grant Fuhr was the main man responsible for that not happening again. Even though the Oilers "had the Cup won", they still needed a key performance from their Hall of Fame goaltender. And they got it. <BR/><BR/><BR/>(Word verification: "ablest")Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-73466992584584273882009-01-07T14:13:00.000-05:002009-01-07T14:13:00.000-05:00The 1984-85 Kings finished 13th out of 21 teams, w...The 1984-85 Kings finished 13th out of 21 teams, with 82 pts in 80 games. (When adjusted for quality of opposition, they had an "SRS" of 0.23, which was 11th overall.) <BR/><BR/>The '85 Kings weren't exactly an elite team.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-86306299032386774342009-01-07T12:51:00.000-05:002009-01-07T12:51:00.000-05:00there's no statistical evidence he was even really...<I>there's no statistical evidence he was even really the caliber of an NHL starter, let alone a Hall of Famer. </I><BR/><BR/>Bill: That's just ridiculous. <BR/><BR/><I> To prove that Grant Fuhr had nothing to do with the Stanley Cup wins, using the playoff year in which Fuhr faced the most shots, if you took the worst save percentage, and the best save percentage in the regular season in 1985, on the Oilers in the playoffs, the leader (based on a minimum of 25 games) and the last place goaltender (again, minimum of 25 games), the worst goalie would only allow 1.5 more goals per game. In games the Oilers won that playoff year, their average margin of victory was more than three times that. </I><BR/><BR/>Are you saying that the Oilers' average margin of victory was four and a half goals??? You'll be needing to improve either your statistical analysis skills and/or your writing skills before finishing that book.<BR/><BR/><I>Really, no matter when those goals were let in, the Oilers had the Cup won.</I><BR/><BR/>It sure as hell DID matter. For the record, Grant Fuhr was chosen the first star of the first four playoff games in 1985, including the entire first series against the Kings. I attended those (home) games and intently watched the road games on the tube and can tell you that I agreed with those selections; Grant played brilliantly as the Oilers gained traction in those playoffs. Later they started to fill the net and won a bunch of 8-3 games, but they struggled out of the gate, allowing lots of shots (107 in 3 games against the Kings) and not putting a lot of goals on the board (discounting an empty netter, just 8 in regulation, far below their usual levels). Fuhr held them in when they needed him most, and was mentioned right to the end of those playoffs as a Smythe candidate along with his teammates Gretzky and Coffey (who both set records that year that still stand). In fact he was a strong Smythe candidate in each of the four Cups that Oilers won when he was a starting goalie, and likely deserved to win at least one of them over those years (1987 IMO). Ultimately Smythe discussion is just opinion too, but it was the opinion of people who actually watched the games at the time, which it is painfully apparent you didn't. <BR/><BR/>Remind me not to buy your book.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-53000527667294719382009-01-07T10:13:00.000-05:002009-01-07T10:13:00.000-05:00Bill, excellent point. I'm more referring to how ...Bill, excellent point. I'm more referring to how often it'll be referred that certain goaltenders arent that great due to being "not much better than their backups" when they probably were. Of course, the best in this case would seem even better in comparison. I guess one thing is clear, that we may be seeing the best case for this site in the Scott Clemmensen era hahaTopher0820https://www.blogger.com/profile/04248864107532023162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-6560084301455999032009-01-06T22:25:00.000-05:002009-01-06T22:25:00.000-05:00@ Chris: But don't you think most goaltenders woul...@ Chris: But don't you think most goaltenders would have the same disadvantage?Bill Morranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07047482409887044804noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-15397181356251775432009-01-06T17:23:00.000-05:002009-01-06T17:23:00.000-05:00i think 2 underrated factors at work when comparin...i think 2 underrated factors at work when comparing backup to starter are also: <BR/><BR/>A) Backups are more likely to be deployed vs. weaker teams.<BR/><BR/>B) a team may play a more conservative game knowing that a weaker goaltender is in net.<BR/><BR/>Both of these would serve to make the #'s a bit closer dont you think?Topher0820https://www.blogger.com/profile/04248864107532023162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-13062989547376611412009-01-05T01:59:00.000-05:002009-01-05T01:59:00.000-05:00i dont think you mentioned how badthe rangers were...i dont think you mentioned how badthe rangers were enoughAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-50453550001223083762009-01-04T07:41:00.000-05:002009-01-04T07:41:00.000-05:00I think it's safe to say that there's no fair syst...I think it's safe to say that there's no fair system, but that's why we don't look at one statistic blankly and judge a player. Several other posts you've made, mostly including playoff numbers, have Ed Belfour shining next to his contemporaries. <BR/><BR/><BR/>Just another thing you may be interest in. I am in the middle of writing a book about statistic based hockey. I've really been laying into Grant Fuhr, who's entire legacy really bothers me, because there's no statistical evidence he was even really the caliber of an NHL starter, let alone a Hall of Famer. <BR/><BR/>To prove that Grant Fuhr had nothing to do with the Stanley Cup wins, using the playoff year in which Fuhr faced the most shots, if you took the worst save percentage, and the best save percentage in the regular season in 1985, on the Oilers in the playoffs, the leader (based on a minimum of 25 games) and the last place goaltender (again, minimum of 25 games), the worst goalie would only allow 1.5 more goals per game. In games the Oilers won that playoff year, their average margin of victory was more than three times that. <BR/><BR/>Really, no matter when those goals were let in, the Oilers had the Cup won.Bill Morranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07047482409887044804noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-57688949858852756402009-01-04T05:05:00.000-05:002009-01-04T05:05:00.000-05:00Bill: Yes, there was an adjustment factor for bac...Bill: Yes, there was an adjustment factor for backup quality, but I'm not completely happy with it. I also noticed that Ed Belfour played with a lot of good goalies. He even got pushed out of town by two of them (Hackett and Turco), which is not something that is likely to happen to somebody who was playing with replacement level backups. I think it is probably reasonable to assume that Belfour may be at least somewhat underrated by the backup comparison method.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-23818354958226196582009-01-04T02:07:00.000-05:002009-01-04T02:07:00.000-05:00I was looking through your post about "the Curious...I was looking through your post about "the Curious Case of the 1980s" and was wondering if your 1990s rankings took into account that Ed Belfour's backups turned into Dominik Hasek, Jeff Hackett, Evgeni Nabokov, Manny Fernandez, and Marty Turco. Every one of them turned into an NHL starter, and in the case of Turco and Hasek, very good ones. I was wondering is that sort of thing will ever be taken into account when using your vs backup stats. Not that I dislike the backup stats, in general, it makes sense, but Ed Belfour has a very noted, unfortunate history with his backups.Bill Morranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07047482409887044804noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-23521264458141501252009-01-03T02:23:00.000-05:002009-01-03T02:23:00.000-05:00When do you think Lundqvist is finally going to ge...When do you think Lundqvist is finally going to get some credit and win a Vezina? Fourth times a charmCanyon of Blueshirtshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08963604662950354647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-54944610772589288662009-01-02T18:31:00.000-05:002009-01-02T18:31:00.000-05:00I'm still a bit hesitant to make too many conclusi...I'm still a bit hesitant to make too many conclusions based on this evidence, especially regarding Chicago. I think Chicago's expected save percentage is likely a little too low, because most of the inputs into my relative rankings were from earlier on, i.e. pre-1960, when the Hawks were a lot weaker.<BR/><BR/>There are definitely some error bars that should be put around those numbers, and it wouldn't require too much variation on some of the estimates for the rankings to switch around. At this point, I think we can only conclude that it was easier to play in Montreal/Toronto/Detroit and tougher to play in New York/Chicago/Boston, and that the variability in goaltending from team to team was pretty low, since it closely tracks the expected numbers. If the Hockey Summary Project gets that far I'd definitely like to update the numbers with the actual save percentages.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-3746576925256456232009-01-02T16:30:00.000-05:002009-01-02T16:30:00.000-05:00Thanks for this, it's very interesting.1. Montreal...Thanks for this, it's very interesting.<BR/><BR/><I>1. Montreal: .915 exp, .917 act<BR/>2. Toronto: .916 exp, .912 act<BR/>3. Detroit: .913 exp, .912 act<BR/>4. Rangers: .911 exp, .911 act<BR/>5. Chicago: .904 exp, .910 act<BR/>6. Boston: .902 exp, .903 act</I><BR/><BR/>It looks like Chicago is the one team that significantly outperformed expected SV%. That suggests that Glenn Hall was the best regular season goalie of the era - which agrees with his being voted a first-team all-star seven times.<BR/><BR/>It also suggests that Terry Sawchuk was not as good as his early career numbers on a Detroit dynasty, and Johnny Bower can thank Punch Imlach and a terrific Toronto defence for his (retroactive) SV% titles.overpasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05106889069832791092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-4488001260781920762009-01-02T14:32:00.000-05:002009-01-02T14:32:00.000-05:00James: Maybe, but not neccessarily. Save percent...James: Maybe, but not neccessarily. Save percentages, like all goalie stats, are affected by the defensive play in front of the goalie and in the Original 6 the difference in defensive strength was apparently quite large. The main goal here was really to try to assess the team strengths rather than rate the goalies.<BR/><BR/>But that is a good idea to combine this with the save percentage numbers. Here are the cumulative save percentages by franchise from 1954-1967:<BR/>1. Montreal .916<BR/>2. Toronto .915<BR/>3. Chicago .913<BR/>4. Detroit .908<BR/>5. Rangers .908<BR/>6. Boston .899<BR/><BR/>I'd say that confirms that Boston was lagging behind everyone else, but for the rest of the teams the results are close enough that strong team factors could easily change the order.<BR/><BR/>If we take the shots per game numbers for the same period, and then combine that with my expected GAA numbers, we can calculate an "expected save percentage". <BR/><BR/>1. Toronto .918<BR/>2. Montreal .917<BR/>3. Detroit .914<BR/>4. Rangers .910<BR/>5. Boston .905<BR/>6. Chicago .903<BR/><BR/>Now this won't be totally accurate because I am mixing a 1947-1967 sample with a 1955-1967 sample, but I think it gives an idea of how the team effects would also impact save percentage. We can't just look at Jacques Plante or Johnny Bower leading the league in save percentage and declare them to be the best goalies - we need to take into account the fact that they were playing on Toronto and Montreal and therefore should have been at or near the top of the league in save percentage.<BR/><BR/>I can attempt to deal with the non-matching sample problem by estimating save percentage and shots for the early 1950s. I used 1955-1958 to project backwards, and came up with these adjusted results:<BR/><BR/>1. Montreal: .915 exp, .917 act<BR/>2. Toronto: .916 exp, .912 act<BR/>3. Detroit: .913 exp, .912 act<BR/>4. Rangers: .911 exp, .911 act<BR/>5. Chicago: .904 exp, .910 act<BR/>6. Boston: .902 exp, .903 act<BR/><BR/>No matter what way you look at it, the numbers seem to show the same thing - goaltending likely wasn't a huge difference maker in the O6 era. This was not because the goalies weren't very good - they were. It was simply the case that every team had a top goalie. As a result there was little advantage to be had, and team defence was the main thing that drove results.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-20322852764054190272009-01-02T13:14:00.000-05:002009-01-02T13:14:00.000-05:00As always, I applaud your work. Nothing too surpri...As always, I applaud your work. Nothing too surprising here. There are sv% and shots against totals out there for 1954-1967. Wouldn't those tell us a lot more about the performances of the goalies of this era than this exercise?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-61298610695716253562008-12-31T21:31:00.000-05:002008-12-31T21:31:00.000-05:00Interesting stuff, CG. That was a goaltenders' lea...Interesting stuff, CG. That was a goaltenders' league, with many more great goalies than weak ones. The Plante-for-Worsley trade would be an interesting one to analyze to support your case. Worsley got a lot "better" after he donned the <I>bleu, blanc et rouge</I>, while Plante's stats plummeted. <BR/><BR/><I>Detroit was a powerhouse in the 1950s and terrible in the 1960s, while Chicago was exactly the reverse. </I><BR/><BR/>Agreed on Chicago, but the Wings went to the Stanley Cup Finals in '61, '63, '64 and '66 and won the Prince of Wales Trophy in '65. They certainly weren't a powerhouse, but "terrible" seems a strong word. Are you referring specifically to their defensive record? <BR/><BR/><I>1. Montreal: 2.36 GAA, .600 win %<BR/>2. Toronto: 2.51 GAA, .535 win % (+0.15 GAA, -0.065 win %)<BR/>3. Detroit: 2.54 GAA, .561 win % (+0.18 GAA, -0.039 win %)<BR/>4. Chicago: 3.04 GAA, .441 win % (+0.68 GAA, -0.159 win %)<BR/>5. Rangers: 3.08 GAA, .430 win % (+0.72 GAA, -0.170 win %)<BR/>6. Boston: 3.09 GAA, .432 win % (+0.73 GAA, -0.168 win %)</I><BR/><BR/>The division between top three and bottom three is pretty stark, isn't it? Looking at the distribution of Stanley Cups during those 21 years, we have:<BR/><BR/>Montreal 8<BR/>Toronto 8<BR/>Detroit 4<BR/>Chicago 1<BR/>New York 0<BR/>Boston 0<BR/><BR/>... with Toronto tied for first by virtue of the years you selected; the Leafs won the Cup in the first and last years of the sample, with Montreal winning just before and just after. The same three dominated the Prince of Wales Trophy during the same era, in fact of the 25 years of the "Original" 6 one of those three took first place every season until the very last one, when Chicago finally beat the Curse of Muldoon.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.com