tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post2409739521496394702..comments2024-03-27T06:03:35.695-04:00Comments on Brodeur is a Fraud: Shot Quality and the Montreal CanadiensThe Contrarian Goaltenderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-27783702192101135152022-09-07T08:23:25.018-04:002022-09-07T08:23:25.018-04:00h9s90z8a10 p6z27g8s63 j7t26l8q98 p9z74w8u92 ... <a href="https://leempeauth98087.wordpress.com/" rel="nofollow"><strong>h9s90z8a10 </strong></a> p6z27g8s63 <a href="https://theau58650.wordpress.com/" rel="nofollow"><strong>j7t26l8q98 </strong></a> p9z74w8u92 <a href="https://sechethea83196.wordpress.com/" rel="nofollow"><strong>r0f91l9b90 </strong></a> l2a57k6t90thedehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16387907705342843772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-41428003173746781542021-06-29T05:41:46.346-04:002021-06-29T05:41:46.346-04:00pg 1
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In the four games Montreal was "expected" to lose, the Habs actually won three. Presumably Game 7 was more of the same, given the 18-3 shots count in the third period alone. Of course those shots were driven by what I call "game state" or JLikens calls "goal state". It seems to be a gigantic factor in all of these things, to the point that if the model doesn't take it into account, the model is probably wrong.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-5208683208854232502010-05-16T02:39:23.056-04:002010-05-16T02:39:23.056-04:00hah, I too did not notice that Chris didn't ha...hah, I too did not notice that Chris didn't have game 7.<br /><br />My model does not include score effects - they might have a significant impact on game 7. It also doesn't incorporate giveaways - Pittsburgh had more really bad defensive zone ones, though they may not be in the PBP.<br /><br />I also removed empty-netters.Hawerchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05789559886083456704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-67113285127641289342010-05-15T23:57:14.896-04:002010-05-15T23:57:14.896-04:00Thanks for that Tom, I didn't notice that Chri...Thanks for that Tom, I didn't notice that Chris' totals so far only ran through game 6.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-13441515709079961142010-05-15T23:57:12.379-04:002010-05-15T23:57:12.379-04:00Do either of your models take game score into acco...Do either of your models take game score into account?<br /><br />I don't think that it would affect things that much in the case of your totals for the series; I'm just interested.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-64335563039477937982010-05-15T23:41:24.986-04:002010-05-15T23:41:24.986-04:00Hawerchuk, we're actually pretty close. Chris ...Hawerchuk, we're actually pretty close. Chris had them after game 6 at 15.5 - 13.1 PIT; I had 15.2 to 12.9. In game 7, the Pens dominated expected goals, so after game 7 my totals are 19.1 to 14.7. Note that I don't count empty-netters.Tom Awadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09368984892070888703noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-84135229669892825342010-05-15T22:20:04.214-04:002010-05-15T22:20:04.214-04:00I'll check out some of the other games to see ...I'll check out some of the other games to see how well they match up. I'd love to add shot target location to the shooting model if it has some predictive value.<br /><br />One thing to keep in mind is that a big chunk of the shots CBS records as 'high' are taken by defensemen from the blueline. So the real question might be whether guys got their shots up from close in.<br /><br />I have the expected goals in the MTL-PIT series at 21.5-13.3 for PIT. This is one of the worst parts of the shot quality models - they don't agree in the least.Hawerchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05789559886083456704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-68216253047888159112010-05-15T20:50:34.653-04:002010-05-15T20:50:34.653-04:00Interesting stuff.
And just as a general point, t...Interesting stuff.<br /><br />And just as a general point, the expected goals figures from hockeynumbers don't take goal state into account (i.e. which team was leading or trailing at the time). <br /><br />That might explain part of the discrepancy between the numbers from the Pittsburgh and Washington series. <br /><br />In the former, the Habs trailed about as often as they led. In the latter, they played with the lead for a large part of the series and rarely trailed.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-91592230445658533492010-05-15T20:26:38.598-04:002010-05-15T20:26:38.598-04:00Re: Game 1 of Pens-Habs, I agree that scorer wasn&...Re: Game 1 of Pens-Habs, I agree that scorer wasn't doing his job. He had 53 out of 55 shots marked down as low shots, that's one of the games I threw out. I ran into other issues like their shot charts didn't always match the shot totals for the game, which didn't always match the NHL's totals, and so on.<br /><br />I'm not sure whether they get it right some of the time or if it's all screwy. My sense is that it looks like the CBS intern or whoever it is knows what he is doing on some nights and some nights he's studying for an exam or something. If you are going to look in some more depth, I'd recommend looking at some sample of the eight games that I picked out above.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-81202248014791910752010-05-15T20:17:15.472-04:002010-05-15T20:17:15.472-04:00Gabe: I agree with you about CBS, I put some disc...Gabe: I agree with you about CBS, I put some disclaimers in the post but still should have probably emphasized even more that we're dealing with a very questionable source. This is certainly not conclusive proof of anything.<br /><br />I was actually expecting the high/low shots to fall pretty much in line with the scoring chances, but they didn't so I thought it was worth throwing it out there to see if anyone had any comments or could make something of it.<br /><br />Hockey Numbers had the expected goals in the Washington series at 28.9-17.0 and the Pittsburgh series just 15.5-13.1. I think it is absolutely fair to say that the Habs' win over Washington was a fluke and very lucky, but I still am not convinced that scoring chances are fully representative against Pittsburgh. Olivier had it at 158-89, and I don't think that truly reflects the play. Again not that the Habs were better or more deserving of the win, just that they weren't too far behind the Penguins and their tactics had a big impact on the shot numbers.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-90343026547701441252010-05-15T14:13:32.509-04:002010-05-15T14:13:32.509-04:00Phil,
Much as I like the CBS database, I'm ve...Phil,<br /><br />Much as I like the CBS database, I'm very skeptical of its accuracy. I've only gone through Game 1 of the MTL-PIT series, but I think the scorer is on crack.<br /><br />First shot of the game:<br /><br />NHL: Staal - 1:26, X=11, Y=30<br />CBS: Staal - 1:20, X=21, Y=17<br /><br />At 1:20, the Pens still have the puck at their blue line. Six seconds later, Staal is down the ice, and he takes a very bad angle shot from the right wing. In other words, the NHL feed is correct and the CBS feed is wrong in every imaginable way. (Although they did record that it was a low shot, which was correct.)<br /><br />I just don't know what the hell the CBS guys are doing, because they literally agree on only 10 shot times over the course of the entire game with the NHL/ESPN feed.<br /><br />I was going to match up the scoring chances with shot location (X-Y and 1-5 holes) but CBS is just a disaster.Hawerchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05789559886083456704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-30126262033335534202010-05-15T14:11:50.458-04:002010-05-15T14:11:50.458-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Hawerchukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05789559886083456704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-17437473787956894882010-05-15T14:01:08.999-04:002010-05-15T14:01:08.999-04:00Overpass: Nice catch.Overpass: Nice catch.Olivierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18280119238261445564noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-42244929271286221242010-05-15T13:25:27.501-04:002010-05-15T13:25:27.501-04:00Chris Boersma at HockeyNumbers ran expected goals ...Chris Boersma at HockeyNumbers ran expected goals for all playoff series so far.<br /><br /><a rel="nofollow">http://hockeynumbers.blogspot.com/2010/05/pit-vs-mtl.html</a>overpasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05106889069832791092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-6051635990407492772010-05-15T00:39:45.806-04:002010-05-15T00:39:45.806-04:00Even if it's empirically true that there were ...Even if it's empirically true that there were more low shots taken than normal, that doesn't necessarily say anything about Montreal's ability to induce low shots. For that you'd have to show that low-shots against percentage has any kind of predictive value.<br /><br />In other words, Montreal's "luck" may be partly encompassed in the fact that they gave up a shit ton of shots that happened to go low.Sunny Mehtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15065546462546932579noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-37076225432669121802010-05-14T23:59:33.433-04:002010-05-14T23:59:33.433-04:00Shooters not making their shots is surely some of ...Shooters not making their shots is surely some of it. But I'm not sure it accounts for all of it, particularly against Pittsburgh.<br /><br />RO: Did Gabe or anyone else ever run shot quality data on the Pittsburgh series? Shot distance, expected goals, that type of thing? To me against Washington it looked like the Habs were consistently lucky to keep the puck out of the net. Against Pittsburgh the Penguins didn't seem nearly that dangerous, even when they were piling up scoring chances with the Habs holding onto the lead. But we all know that memories are faulty things, so I don't know.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-70901097456144096472010-05-14T23:43:30.991-04:002010-05-14T23:43:30.991-04:00Derick: NHL.com has it. Go to individual stats, ...Derick: NHL.com has it. Go to individual stats, goalies, special teams.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-71324697725117278162010-05-14T22:35:48.820-04:002010-05-14T22:35:48.820-04:00Nice work. Good eyes to remember CBS sportsline.Nice work. Good eyes to remember CBS sportsline.Tophamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14157334079663330151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-83996482360586629542010-05-14T22:01:19.010-04:002010-05-14T22:01:19.010-04:00It sounds a lot like "shooters didn't mak...It sounds a lot like "shooters didn't make their shots", especially when paired with the scoring chance data.<br /><br />YMMV on that.R Ohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10347368583880785872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-424471681401374792010-05-14T21:01:09.557-04:002010-05-14T21:01:09.557-04:00Do you know where I could get information on even ...Do you know where I could get information on even strength shots and even strength goals against, specifically for the Canucks series? Thanks.Dericknoreply@blogger.com