tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post3489711874230637553..comments2024-03-27T06:03:35.695-04:00Comments on Brodeur is a Fraud: Why Aren't There More Brodeurs?The Contrarian Goaltenderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-40492831033571103582022-05-19T10:17:39.351-04:002022-05-19T10:17:39.351-04:00read review louis vuitton replica site link repl... read review <a href="https://www.dolabuy.ru/soft-c-157_158_335/7-star-m44730-louis-vuitton-soft-trunk-monogram-other-p-1926.html" rel="nofollow"><strong>louis vuitton replica</strong></a> site link <a href="https://www.dolabuy.ru/strap-c-157_224_225/replica-christian-dior-embroidered-christian-dior-shoulderstrap-p-3596.html" rel="nofollow"><strong>replica louis vuitton bags</strong></a> blog link <a href="https://www.dolabuy.ru/17cm-c-157_190_228_280/best-designer-knockoff-cf-17cm20cm25-cm-handbags-china-p-4464.html" rel="nofollow"><strong>replica louis vuitton</strong></a>whisiezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03672860467999495880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-89846481928770079542021-06-29T05:43:52.570-04:002021-06-29T05:43:52.570-04:00golden goose sneakers
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Leaving aside...This last, I think I can answer... <br /><br />Leaving aside for the moment "he has worse D-men now," Brodeur's win % went up post-lockout in large measure because some of his losses are now counted as ties, and he gets to win games in shootouts now, and have them count towards his overall totals.<br /><br />Before the 1999-2000 season, when the league started giving out its pity points for OT losses, the league's win percentage was, of course, .500 overall. The next five years, expressed in terms of points/possible points: .525, .525, .525, .532, .529.<br /><br />Then, in the five years after that, with shootout wins AND pity points: .557, .557, .555, .557, and so far this year .568.<br /><br />That's everyone, overall. To take Brodeur specifically - he's 32-15 in the shootout to date. That's very good, and a credit to his individual skill - but that .681 winning percentage skews the numbers you quote. Under the old rules those 32 wins would be ties. Then factor in the 24 games he lost in OT from the 99-00 season to present, all counted as ties even though he was the losing keeper.<br /><br />Brodeur's career record would go from 572-305-129 to 540-329-137.<br /><br />Pre-pity points, his record was 201-105-57, a percentage (expressed in points/possible points) of .632. After, it's 371-200-72 (to date), which is .633: virtually identical. But correcting for SO wins and OT losses moves him to 339-224-80, a percentage of .589.<br /><br />Since his save percentage has risen but he's not actually netting as many points (at least if one adjusts for the rule changes), it's just as reasonable to conclude that it's the Devils' <i>offense</i> that has declined rather than its defense.nightflyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04666773766092187348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-63532872004729280992009-11-02T16:32:56.051-05:002009-11-02T16:32:56.051-05:00I disagree with you about the effect of the team o...I disagree with you about the effect of the team on Brodeur's ability. Especially in regards to winning games.<br /><br />Look at the win% for example for Brodeur. His Career average of wins is 58%, However, before the lockout his win% was only 54.5%. After the lockout, with worse D-men his win% shot up to 59.6%. His SV% has also gone up since the lock out. If elite defensemen were indeed padding Brodeur's stats, then why is his stats better when he didn't have elite d-men in front of him?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15974011721371497463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-2369493890677040362008-09-22T16:31:00.000-04:002008-09-22T16:31:00.000-04:00OK, here is the short answer then if you couldn't ...OK, here is the short answer then if you couldn't get it from the post: There aren't more goalies who have numbers like Brodeur mainly because nobody played as many games as Brodeur, nobody played for as long on an elite defensive team as Brodeur, and Brodeur played in a low-scoring era.<BR/><BR/>Those are three major advantages that few goalies have ever had in NHL history, and they definitely helped him put up big numbers. Team and era effects matter - that is why Manny Legace, Manny Fernandez, Marty Turco, Evgeni Nabokov and J.S. Giguere all have a lower career GAA and a higher career save percentage than Patrick Roy or Ed Belfour. And more games played means more wins. Or why else would Felix Potvin, Don Beaupre, Kelly Hrudey,<BR/>and Sean Burke all rank ahead of Ken Dryden, Johnny Bower, and Bill Durnan on the all-time wins list?The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-46076172997801104952008-09-19T17:10:00.000-04:002008-09-19T17:10:00.000-04:00"And proving that a goalie on another team could p..."And proving that a goalie on another team could put up the same numbers as Brodeur did is actually answering the question, not dodging it. Unless I misunderstand your point."<BR/><BR/>you dont answer it. the question is why arent the more goalies who have numbers like brodeur? not, could there have been a player or team or how ever you theoretically answered the question.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-89794766791837002462008-09-19T11:32:00.000-04:002008-09-19T11:32:00.000-04:00Sorry that you missed the point, Anonymous, but th...Sorry that you missed the point, Anonymous, but the reason I can pick a group of the best teams is that those teams are the most similar to the New Jersey Devils. I didn't take the best teams (for instance, I didn't include Colorado even they were unquestionably one of the best teams in the period), I took the best defensive teams, which is much more relevant when you are considering goalie play. Brodeur played on the best defensive team in the league that allowed the fewest shots against over a 9 year stretch. If you want me to compare Brodeur's numbers to the goalies on Florida and the New York Islanders, well I can do that, but I'm not sure there is any point to it.<BR/><BR/>And proving that a goalie on another team could put up the same numbers as Brodeur did is actually answering the question, not dodging it. Unless I misunderstand your point.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-71487824978179785572008-09-19T04:58:00.000-04:002008-09-19T04:58:00.000-04:00this article is so full of contradictions. even in...this article is so full of contradictions. even in the begining when comparing brodeur to philadelphia, the .02 difference in save percentage is described as only "slightly better" yet when talking about the play of backups, a difference of .03 difference is aparently made out to be huge. not to mention that in brodeurs tenure philadelphia has gone through how many goalies? are you kidding here even comparing the teams. i dont care how good you think roman checkmanik or robert esche is, the fact is they havent stuck around for one reason or another. this is just pitiful analysis because its so subjective. not to mention, you start of the paragraph with the question, if its so easy to do what brodeur does, then why dont we have other goalies doing what he does? and what do you do, you completely dodge the question by going off on some statistical tirade to prove that a team can put up similar although not even close to better numbers over a subjective- cherry picked period. i guess we'll just leave ottowa out cuz they werent really a team in 95-96? get real here, how can you pick through a group of the best teams, then take the team with the best numbers, and then try to compare those to an individual?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-51856751599795808802008-09-17T15:24:00.000-04:002008-09-17T15:24:00.000-04:00There have been a few dismal playoff performances ...<I>There have been a few dismal playoff performances in there (including even arguably costing his team the 2001 Stanley Cup), but that is typical of nearly all goalies with a similar length of tenure. Playoff series are short and a lot of luck and randomness is involved. I have probably underrated Brodeur in the past by failing to fully value this type of contribution.</I> <BR/><BR/>That too is fair comment. There's an old saying that applies to every last one of these guys, namely "The sun doesn't shine on the same dog's ass every day". To wit:<BR/><BR/>1999 Finals: Ed Belfour's Stars outlast Dom Hasek's Sabres (2-1 in triple OT in Game 6).<BR/><BR/>2000 Finals: Martin Brodeur's Devils squeak by Belfour and the Stars (2-1 in double OT in Game 6).<BR/><BR/>2001 Finals: Patrick Roy's Avalanche slip by Brodeur and the Devils (3-1 in Game 7)<BR/><BR/>2002 Semi-Finals: Hasek and his new team, the Red Wings, take down Roy and the Avalanche in the Western Conference Final en route to the Cup (Hasek posting back-to-back shutouts in Games 6 and 7) <BR/><BR/>Brodeur was a series hero in 2000 when he held the defending champion Stars to a single goal in each of the last four games of the SCF (including five overtime periods with the Cup in the balance in Games 5 and 6). He was again a hero in 2003 when he outduelled one of the best of the Next Gen goalies, J-S Giguere, by recording his third shutout of the series in Game 7. But Brodeur was definitely second best to Roy at the tail end of those '01 Finals. Roy allowed only 1 goal over the last two games, and of course Brodeur had commensurate goal support as his high-powered team couldn't solve the great Roy when it mattered most. And unlike the previous year when Brodeur received equivalent goal support in the last two games (1 regulation goal) but matched Belfour save for save to take both games to OT and give his team an extended chance to break through, the 'lanche got the jump in Game 7, Roy slammed the door, and that was that. <BR/><BR/>Yet the very next year that same Roy made an horrific blunder against the Wings that turned the series in Game 6, and was blown out 7-0 in the decider. In fact Roy, widely considered a great clutch goaltender, lost a Game 7 showdown in each of 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, and 2003. <BR/><BR/>Even the great Patrick Roy couldn't win 'em all.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-35316656505797543452008-09-17T12:09:00.000-04:002008-09-17T12:09:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-41177302090381968612008-09-16T17:57:00.000-04:002008-09-16T17:57:00.000-04:00I decided to take a closer look at the "all-time" ...I decided to take a closer look at the "all-time" leaders in Sv%. Due to the era effects noted by CG, and the fact that Sv% has only been maintained for last quarter century, every goalie on the list was active in 2007-08. Here's the list (courtesy Hockey-reference.com):<BR/><BR/><B>Career Sv% leaders:<BR/>------------------------------<BR/>1. Dominik Hasek .9223<BR/>2. Roberto Luongo .9191<BR/>3. Jean-Sebastien Giguere .9154<BR/>4. Miikka Kiprusoff .9148<BR/>5. Manny Legace .9143<BR/>6. Tomas Vokoun .9136<BR/>7. Martin Brodeur .9135<BR/>8. Marty Turco .9133<BR/>9. Manny Fernandez .9121<BR/>10t. Evgeni Nabokov .9109<BR/>10t. Martin Biron .9109</B><BR/><BR/>Rather than look at league averages from the first time a given goalie got his first cup of coffee in the NHL, I measured against the time the guy established himself as a starter, which I defined as 40+ GP. Many guys on this list spent their early careers in backup roles, playing relatively few games at times of lower average Sv% rates and a disproportionate number during times of higher Sv% league-wide. <BR/><BR/>In the interest of fairness I will state right here neither method is perfect; to do it right one should weight each goalie by actual shots faced in a given season * the league Sv% in that season.Only then could his career Sv% be expressed fairly against the league norms during his career. But I didn't have time to go into that depth today; having stated the above <I>caveat</I> I think this method is defensible. You did want to compare Brodeur only to other starting goalies, and this accounts for just that.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, the more stringent requirement reveals this:<BR/><BR/><B>Player age in first 40+ GP season:<BR/>----------------------------------------------<BR/>Brodeur 21<BR/>Luongo 21<BR/>Biron 22<BR/>Giguere 24<BR/>Nabokov 25<BR/>Fernandez 26<BR/>Vokoun 26<BR/>Turco 27<BR/>Hasek 29<BR/>Kiprusoff 29<BR/>Legace 30<BR/></B><BR/>Brodeur was about one month younger than Luongo when assuming a starting role, and other than Biron the two were 3-9 years clear of the other guys, whose mean age when assuming the #1 job was >27. So these two guys provided outstanding early career value. <BR/><BR/><B>First season of 40+ GP | League mean Sv% then to now:<BR/>-------------------------------------------------------------------<BR/>Brodeur 1993-94 | .9046<BR/>Hasek 1993-94 | .9046<BR/>Biron 1999-00 | .9064<BR/>Luongo 2000-01 | .9067<BR/>Fernandez 2000-01 | .9067<BR/>Nabokov 2000-01 | .9067<BR/>Giguere 2001-02 | .9072<BR/>Vokoun 2002-03 | .9071<BR/>Turco 2002-03 | .9071<BR/>Legace 2003-04 | .9066<BR/>Kiprusoff 2005-06 | .9052<BR/></B><BR/>Note that the apparent upward curve of NHL Sv% seems to moderate in the case of the last few goalies, due to extra weight afforded the anomalous 2005-06 campaign ("The new NHL" a.k.a. the Year of the Powerplay).<BR/><BR/><B>Career Sv% over NHL mean (X)<BR/>----------------------------------------<BR/>Hasek: +.0177<BR/>Luongo +.0124<BR/>Kiprusoff +.0096<BR/>Brodeur +.0089<BR/>Giguere +.0082<BR/>Legace +.0077<BR/>Vokoun +.0065<BR/>Turco +.0062<BR/>Fernandez +.0054<BR/>Biron +.0045<BR/>Nabokov +.0042<BR/></B><BR/>Plain enough. Kipper with his relatively light career workload (40+ GP only since lockout) sneaks into third. <BR/><BR/><B>Career shots faced (Y):<BR/>--------------------------------------<BR/>Brodeur 24,256 <BR/>Hasek 20,220 <BR/>Luongo 14,888 <BR/>Vokoun 12,806 <BR/>Giguere 11,316 <BR/>Nabokov 10,926 <BR/>Biron 10,177 <BR/>Turco 8,940 <BR/>Kiprusoff 8,299 <BR/>Fernandez 8,012 <BR/>Legace 7,737 </B><BR/><BR/>For all that his team allows relatively few shots per game, Brodeur's workload has been such that he has faced 20% more shots than Hasek, >60% more than Luongo, and double or treble the other guys. <BR/><BR/><B>X * Y<BR/>--------<BR/>1. Hasek -358 GA<BR/>2. Brodeur -216 GA <BR/>3. Luongo -185 GA<BR/>4. Giguere -93 GA<BR/>5. Vokoun -83 GA<BR/>6. Kiprusoff -80 GA<BR/>7. Legace -60 GA<BR/>8. Turco -55 GA<BR/>9t. Nabokov -46 GA<BR/>9t. Biron -46 GA<BR/>11. Fernandez -43 GA<BR/></B><BR/>To me that's a pretty reasonable account of the true impact of these guys. Hasek stands alone, while Brodeur and Luongo rate far ahead of the rest of the field. Luongo may yet catch Brodeur by this metric given he will presumably play a few years longer; however there is no guarantee that any of these guys will retain their current performance levels into their mid-30s as Brodeur has. Marty ranks behind just Hasek in delivering late-career value.<BR/><BR/>To me those three are easily the best goalies on the list -- indeed they are three of the best goalies in the history of the league -- and the fact they rank 1-2-3 suggests this method of evaluating career value is a pretty good one. <BR/><BR/>Of course this does not account for goalies of the '80s and '90s, and it stands to reason that a guy like Patrick Roy (12th on the career Sv% list) would have posted an excellent number as well. Maybe I will extend the study someday and maybe the result will wind up 1. Hasek 2. Roy 3. Brodeur, or (due to volume of GP) 1. Roy, 2. Hasek, 3. Brodeur. Either way it's a short list, and Brodeur is certainly on it, and still climbing. I don't even necessarily disagree that he's third best of that elite group. This metric is of course based in his supposedly weak area, Sv%, with no consideration of other factors (way better peripheral game than Hasek or Roy, way less of a head case, etc.). It confirms to my satisfaction that he belongs in the discussion.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-34446254921076443072008-09-16T17:42:00.000-04:002008-09-16T17:42:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-62660615764849201062008-09-16T14:45:00.000-04:002008-09-16T14:45:00.000-04:00CG: This is an excellent summary, very fair-minded...CG: This is an excellent summary, very fair-minded. You have indeed singled out many of the qualities that set Martin Brodeur apart from his peers, in season-over-season production as well as the staggering career numbers that he grows at an inexorably prodigious rate. I agree with many of your points, although as is our wont we occasionally draw different conclusions. For now I will address your summary:<BR/><I><BR/>1. He is a good goalie, mostly above-average throughout his career and at times great</I><BR/><BR/>I would say “very, very good”, but sure. <BR/><BR/><BR/><I>2. He was drafted by the premier defensive team in the league</I><BR/><BR/>Brodeur was drafted by an organization with a plan, and he was part of that plan. I can’t imagine they would have expended a first round draft choice on him otherwise (rare for a goalie in any era, especially around 1990). While the hockey world fixated on that year’s “Big Four” – Owen Nolan, Petr Nedved, Keith Primeau, and Mike Ricci for the record (and a pretty mediocre record it is in retrospect, for all the hype there was about those guys). Pittsburgh, 5th overall, took the booby prize in Jaromir Jagr; and in my view it is a very interesting question who was the best player taken in that draft, Jagr or Brodeur. Nobody else comes close, although Sergei Zubov was a nice steal in the 5th round. Drafting to need, Lou Lamoriello picked Mike Dunham in the 3rd round and Corey Schwab in the 10th, and both went on to play for the Devils, albeit as the definitive back-up to Brodeur who seized the #1 job and never let go. Both were good enough to kick around the league for quite a while, and Dunham in particular had a nice run on a developing expansion team in Nashville. <BR/><BR/><BR/><I>He played the most games of any goalie in the league</I><BR/><BR/>True. I see this as a bigger asset than you do, but certainly it helps the counting numbers. To use a baseball analogy, imagine two pitching staffs where you have an ace of similar ability, one of the best in the league. Pitcher A is in a five-man rotation, Pitcher B in a four-man. (Nowadays in baseball there are no doubt pitchers out there who could pitch on three days rest, but unless a team had an entire rotation that could do the same it is a practical impossibility. But as a hypothetical it works.) Both consistently deliver quality starts, pitching into the late innings with few enough runs allowed to at least keep his team in the game. By season’s end Pitcher B has 20-25% more innings pitched, and commensurately more Wins while maintaining a similar ERA and WHIP. In my mind Pitcher B has helped his team more, simply through volume of above-standard contributions. And if Pitcher B continues to deliver workhouse innings at high quality for a long career, well he’s a Hall of Famer almost by definition. <BR/><BR/>Now for all you can say that If the other teams started their goalies as often as Brodeur and If they had sustained their level of performance with the extra workload, fact is few goalies have shouldered such a workload and fewer have delivered consistently positive results when doing so. <BR/><BR/><BR/><I>4. He remained a one-team guy, allowing him to play nearly his entire career behind a great defence</I><BR/><BR/>True. He has been a great defensive player on a great defensive team. To my eye he commands the defensive zone the way a great soccer keeper commands the box, and his constant, consistent presence back there helped to simplify his teammates’ defensive responsibilities. He has been loyal to the team and the team to him, befitting of the mutually beneficial relationship they enjoy.<BR/><BR/><I>5. He played in a low-scoring era, which makes his numbers look better in an all-time context</I><BR/><BR/>Absolutely true. That said, he is at a disadvantage against his peers in this respect: with the single exception of the extraordinary Dominik Hasek, Brodeur’s career started significantly earlier than every other goalie in the Top 10 career Sv% list. In the first three years of his career, years that were played by none of these other guys except the Dominator, the league-wide Sv% was just ~.898. So Brodeur’s career Sv% should be expected to be a little lower against the “next wave” of goalies, just as it should be expected to be higher than the goalies that preceded him (which, of course, it actually is).<BR/><BR/>And he is at a disadvantage to one specific generation of historical goaltenders, those whose careers started in the late 1920s, who have sewn up the top All-Time GAA stats. <BR/><BR/>I’m gonna grind some numbers, see if we can add a little more context. Watch this space.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.com