tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post4152957961889480438..comments2024-03-27T06:03:35.695-04:00Comments on Brodeur is a Fraud: Some Help from the Official Scorer?The Contrarian Goaltenderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-75272871103735426242010-10-04T23:03:26.598-04:002010-10-04T23:03:26.598-04:002nd line.
I *would* be interested2nd line.<br /><br />I *would* be interestedAgent Orangehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11969608025201544178noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-80099600807368198562010-10-04T23:02:27.851-04:002010-10-04T23:02:27.851-04:00I actually agree there is likely some over and und...I actually agree there is likely some over and undercounting going on. What I meant to convey is that the over/under counting is only a fraction of the difference in his home/away split.<br /><br />I be interested to hear a prads fan's view on the difference between Rinne's home road performance.<br /><br />From the bumbers he appears drastically different. Good at home. Bad on the road.Agent Orangehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11969608025201544178noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-43802018180840651162010-10-04T14:07:11.903-04:002010-10-04T14:07:11.903-04:00I didn't mean to imply that this was absolute ...I didn't mean to imply that this was absolute proof of overcounting, or that there were no other factors involved, it's more just a thing to keep an eye on as Rinne's career progresses, given that some have suspected his team of padding stats in the past.<br /><br />I don't think Rinne's played enough in the NHL yet for us to have much confidence claiming anything about him, really, at least by going off the numbers alone. I agree that team factors could easily be at work, either team strategy or simply team home/road performance. For example, I didn't look at the relative strength of the teams that Rinne and Ellis faced, that might have had some impact, especially on the shots against totals.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-72177290155060999132010-10-04T13:07:30.155-04:002010-10-04T13:07:30.155-04:00Interesting stuff CG. Being a Wings fan I've s...Interesting stuff CG. Being a Wings fan I've seen enough of Pekka Rinne the last 2 years (5-1-2 0.937 2.09) against the Wings and was very impressed with him in the playoffs (first 3 games anyway) so I took a quick look at his stats.<br /><br />I agree with the career home/road splits as you have indicated them but I think the SA numbers actually have a pretty small impact on his overall stats.<br /><br />I calculated his overall SV% assuming the road SA/60 was the actual home number. This changed his total shots<br /><br />3024 -> 2941<br />Total GA -> 260<br />The GA is a hard number which there is no estimation error (obviously).<br /><br />I got the following<br /><br />SV%_Est = 0.9116<br />SV%_Act = 0.9140<br /><br />So if we assume the Nashville home scorer is giving him an extra 1.27 shots per game we only get a discrepancy of 0.0024 in SV%.<br /><br />0.0024 is roughly 7 goals over the course of Rinne's career (over 100 gp, GAA impact of 0.07).<br /><br />This isn't enough to change my opinion of him based on the reported stats and seeing him play.<br /><br />There must something else to explain the difference between his home/road splits. Maybe Nashville needs to consider using the home strategy on the road or maybe Rinne's just gets nervous on the road (one would hope not).<br /><br />His stats tell me he is a above average to good starting goalie and I haven't seen anything to change them.Agent Orangehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11969608025201544178noreply@blogger.com