tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post5693277883464850205..comments2024-03-18T05:15:00.024-04:00Comments on Brodeur is a Fraud: Shots Attempts AgainstThe Contrarian Goaltenderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-60466873308100634672022-08-14T08:21:37.646-04:002022-08-14T08:21:37.646-04:00moncler jacket
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I think a much more accurate comparison would be to compare the Same goalie's SV% between facing more shots and facing less shots. For example. What is a Goalie's SV% in a season where he faced 30+ shots vs when he only faced 20 or lower?<br /><br />I think that would be a more accurate analysis of corelation between shots taken and SV%. However even then, it still would vary between goaltenders, as some styles would favor one or the other.<br /><br />As for shot blocked, last year over 1/3 of the goals on Brodeur were from deflections from his own team. I don't think you can really factor in blocked shots correctly because they simply don't have that data of what happened after the block was attempted.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15974011721371497463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-2468778285484828122008-11-19T12:13:00.000-05:002008-11-19T12:13:00.000-05:00I did a bit more research on this, and here are a ...I did a bit more research on this, and here are a couple of comments:<BR/><BR/>Blocked shots are less correlated with shot quality against than they are with save percentage. For the shot quality numbers I have from 2005-2008, the correlation with blocked shots was 0.14.<BR/><BR/>Another thing I thought to check was who exactly was blocking all the shots. If only point shots were being blocked, for instance, then we would expect forwards to block a large portion of the shots. A better way to check this would be to figure out who had their shot blocked, because defencemen could be blocking point shots closer to the net, but I don't have that data. It turns out that defencemen account for 66% of the blocked shots this season. Considering that defencemen have only taken 26% of total shots, this implies that most of the blocks are taken closer to the net. If so, teams that are blocking a lot of shots seem to be helping their shot quality against.<BR/><BR/>In my experience, it is usually tougher to make a stop when a defencemen makes a failed shot block attempt than a forward, because they are usually closer to the net so you have less time to react and are often partially or completely screened. I would guess most own-goal deflections come off of defencemen.<BR/><BR/>One thing we could investigate is how much of shot blocking is based on the system and how much is based on discretion. For example, is there a team that doesn't block many shots with the starter in the net yet tries to block everything when the backup plays? If there are discrepancies, that would suggest that part of the relationship would be explained by goalie quality. If worse goalies are less likely to stop the puck, and teams are more likely to block shots for worse goalies, then that would certainly account for some of the effect.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-33592837002392071072008-11-19T09:23:00.000-05:002008-11-19T09:23:00.000-05:00Regarding SQNSV%, I actually emailed Chris from Ho...Regarding SQNSV%, I actually emailed Chris from Hockey Numbers about this exact thing last season. <BR/><BR/>So far as I know, the NHL does not record (in their play-by-play data) when a goal is scored on a deflection by the opposing team.<BR/><BR/>For example, if Lidstrom shoots the puck at the blue line and it deflects off an opposing team player in front of the net, the NHL records "GOAL: Lidstrom, Slapshot, 60 feet."<BR/><BR/>Whereas, if Lidstrom shoots the same shot and it gets deflected the exact same way, but off Zetterberg, the NHL records "GOAL: Zetterberg, Tip-in, 5 feet."<BR/><BR/>I don't know how significant it is in the overall SQ model, but it sure seems like a pretty big error to me. Maybe someone can email Ryder.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-92082022533520839012008-11-19T01:45:00.000-05:002008-11-19T01:45:00.000-05:00If, on the other hand, shot-blocking causes a lowe...<I>If, on the other hand, shot-blocking causes a lower SV% because missed shot-blocks screen the goalie and distract him, the effect should be independent of SV%.</I><BR/><BR/>Bingo. The goalie gets no credit for the shots blocked by his team. But the shots that get through the traffic are going to be harder for him to see and stop. Also, as Don Cherry is wont to point out about a thousand times a season, sometimes attempted shot blocks wind up being deflections. No problem if they're deflected wide, but again no credit to the goalie. If they're on net, though, it's generally a tough stop. <BR/><BR/>Whereas if a team is coached to allow the goalie to see the puck and make the first save while clearing rebounds and traffic from around the goal mouth, that would correspond well with results like Anaheim's. There's more to shot quality than distance.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-10186458759626605952008-11-18T22:51:00.000-05:002008-11-18T22:51:00.000-05:00jlikens - That's an interesting question. I'd like...jlikens - That's an interesting question. I'd like to see the relationship between SQNSV% and shots blocked.<BR/><BR/>If blocking shots simply stops lower percentage shots from getting through and raises the average shot quality of the shots that do make it to the net, that should show up in Ryder's shot quality model. The "shot-blocking effect on SV%" would be fully accounted for in the model.<BR/><BR/>If, on the other hand, shot-blocking causes a lower SV% because missed shot-blocks screen the goalie and distract him, the effect should be independent of SV%.<BR/><BR/><I>So in other words, even if blocking shots worsens save percentage on shots that get to the net, shot blocking might still be a huge net gain because it prevents a ton of shots from even hitting the net.</I><BR/><BR/>sunnymehta - I think you're right about that. Players who block shots aren't concerned about maximizing their goalie's SV%, they're trying to minimize GAA.overpasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05106889069832791092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-71692881121761252722008-11-18T22:12:00.000-05:002008-11-18T22:12:00.000-05:00I'm wondering to what effect the relationship betw...I'm wondering to what effect the relationship between shots blocked and save percentage is independent of shot quality (as measured by Alan Ryder. <BR/><BR/>Take Anaheim for example.<BR/><BR/>Last season, the Ducks ranked 29th out of 30 teams in terms of shot quality against (i.e. they were the 2nd worst team in this regard). And yet, they had the 2nd best save percentage. <BR/><BR/>What's interesting is that the Ducks blocked the 2nd fewest shots. Perhaps this allowed them to have such a high team save percentage despite ostensibly allowing such dangerous shots on average.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-45341743025809387392008-11-18T19:23:00.000-05:002008-11-18T19:23:00.000-05:00Guys, correct me if I'm missing something here (or...Guys, correct me if I'm missing something here (or if this is just extremely obvious), but the above SV% numbers are for shots that hit the net, not the total "save percentage" on shots that were ATTEMPTED.<BR/><BR/>So in other words, even if blocking shots worsens save percentage on shots that get to the net, shot blocking might still be a huge net gain because it prevents a ton of shots from even hitting the net.<BR/><BR/>E.g., let's say Team A shoots the puck 100 times.<BR/><BR/>In example 1, Team B decides to block none of them. The goalie posts a save percentage of .920 and 8 total goals are allowed.<BR/><BR/>In example 2, Team B decides to try and block all of them. 40 are blocked and don't hit the net. Of the 60 that hit the net, the goalie posts a .900 save percentage. Note that 6 total goals are allowed - 2 less than the first example, despite the goaltender posting a significantly lower SV%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-6849965753318940762008-11-18T18:43:00.000-05:002008-11-18T18:43:00.000-05:00The negative correlation between shot blocking and...The negative correlation between shot blocking and SV% is interesting. It makes intuitive sense also, because some coaches and goalies clearly prefer that their players block fewer shots (including the Flames, as alluded to by Kent W.)<BR/><BR/>I don't know if this tactic is a net loss or a net gain, but they would be crazy to do so if blocking shots had no effect on SV%. If that was the case, teams should be going all-out to block shots. NHL teams have been known to pursue sub-optimal strategies, but surely not to this degree.<BR/><BR/>It's easy to think of ways that blocked shots might affect SV%. If blockable shots tend to be lower quality shots, teams that choose to block them will face better quality shots on average than teams that choose not to. I think this is likely the main cause of the correlation. Also, teams that sell out to block shots may leave themselves open to the other team creating higher quality opportunities, by screening the goalie or by taking themselves out of the play.<BR/><BR/>It would be interesting to see more work on this, particularly the effect it has on individual goaltenders SV%. Of course, that's difficult because of the RTSS issues CG mentioned in his post, but if a home-road breakdown of those stats is available it should be possible to remove the scorer bias.overpasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05106889069832791092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-64920855391774294912008-11-18T16:33:00.000-05:002008-11-18T16:33:00.000-05:00Im very interested in the negative correlation bet...Im very interested in the negative correlation between shot blocking and save percentage. Both because it seems counter-intuitive to me and because the Flames coaching staff has been actively discouraging shot blocking since the Stanley Cup run (even though Kipper's effectiveness has been falling). <BR/><BR/>It would be nice to verify whether they're on the right track or not with that strategy.Kent W.https://www.blogger.com/profile/15679878875910837307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-10661296387127743092008-11-18T12:54:00.000-05:002008-11-18T12:54:00.000-05:00The correlation is based on the entire sample.The correlation is based on the entire sample.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-67827548567824567612008-11-18T01:24:00.000-05:002008-11-18T01:24:00.000-05:00Highly interesting.As you said, there doesn't seem...Highly interesting.<BR/><BR/>As you said, there doesn't seem to much a relationship between the two variables.<BR/><BR/>The negative correlation between blocked shots and save percentage is interesting, though.<BR/><BR/>Is the correlation based on an analysis of the entire sample, or the average of individual seasons (or neither)?JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.com