tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post8282822441542887053..comments2024-03-27T06:03:35.695-04:00Comments on Brodeur is a Fraud: The Emergence of Cam WardThe Contrarian Goaltenderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-2702132545344234702009-04-05T16:33:00.000-04:002009-04-05T16:33:00.000-04:00Despite the improvement in numbers, though, I don'...Despite the improvement in numbers, though, I don't believe last season was considered anywhere near an accomplishment for Ward - more of a disappointment. Certainly didn't do much to dispel the image of mediocrity he'd been gaining. It may be predicated on making the playoffs or living up to his Conn Smythe numbers, but I think there's a little more beyond the usefulness of the raw data.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-81331880373281216452009-04-05T15:07:00.000-04:002009-04-05T15:07:00.000-04:00"Carolina's switch from Stefan to Barrasso as the ..."Carolina's switch from Stefan to Barrasso as the goaltending coach in the middle of last season couldn't have anything to do with Ward improving this year, could it?"<BR/><BR/>It's possible that the change to Barrasso is (partly) responsible for Ward's solid play this season.<BR/><BR/>However, it cannot account for his two previous year-to-year improvements (with reference to save percentage), which are similar in magnitude to this season's improvement.JLikenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02570453428274983835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-63488629757827348602009-04-05T03:11:00.000-04:002009-04-05T03:11:00.000-04:00Carolina's switch from Stefan to Barrasso as the g...Carolina's switch from Stefan to Barrasso as the goaltending coach in the middle of last season couldn't have anything to do with Ward improving this year, could it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-21440461224976775602009-04-04T05:12:00.000-04:002009-04-04T05:12:00.000-04:00Maybe, maybe not. Lehtonen's a UFA this summer.I b...<I>Maybe, maybe not. <B>Lehtonen's a UFA this summer.</B></I><BR/><BR/>I believe he's an RFA, which complicates matters a bit.FatMannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-61456462230896939442009-04-04T05:03:00.000-04:002009-04-04T05:03:00.000-04:00Fair enough. You may, however, be waiting awhile.M...<I>Fair enough. You may, however, be waiting awhile.</I><BR/><BR/>Maybe, maybe not. Lehtonen's a UFA this summer. I doubt Atlanta will re-sign him, so he'll likely have the chance to pick his spot. If he goes to a good team, I think he'll start to attract recognition as one of the better goalies in the league.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-9401287853188474662009-04-03T22:36:00.000-04:002009-04-03T22:36:00.000-04:00I'll reserve judgment on Lehtonen until he gets an...<I>I'll reserve judgment on Lehtonen until he gets another opportunity on the big stage.</I><BR/><BR/>Fair enough. You may, however, be waiting awhile.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-3797091349235280792009-04-02T19:58:00.000-04:002009-04-02T19:58:00.000-04:00Bruce: I meant in terms of how good they are righ...Bruce: I meant in terms of how good they are right now, not based on career accomplishments. I agree you can make a case for Ward or Fleury over Lehtonen if you consider playoffs and longevity, but I'd still probably take Lehtonen for this reason alone:<BR/><BR/>Average shot quality against over the last 3 seasons:<BR/><BR/>Atlanta 1.04<BR/>Pittsburgh 1.01<BR/>Carolina 0.98<BR/><BR/>I think Lehtonen was a much better 20 year old goalie than either of the other two, but he has had his development slowed by injury troubles which has allowed them to close the gap. Despite his troubles staying in the lineup, I still think Lehtonen is the most talented of the three and has the highest upside.<BR/><BR/><I>Playoff stats<BR/>----------------<BR/>Ward 15-8, .652, .920, 2.14<BR/>Fleury 15-10, .600, .922, 2.30<BR/>Lehtonen 0-2, .000, .849, 5.59<BR/><BR/>Uh, yeah.</I><BR/><BR/>Lack of opportunity has a lot to do with that, although Lehtonen did play one absolutely horrible playoff game. Maybe he is a bad playoff performer, I don't know, but his pre-NHL career looks awfully "clutch":<BR/><BR/>* 16-10, 1.86, .940 career in AHL playoffs<BR/>* 14-6, 1.68 career in Finnish playoffs<BR/>* Finnish playoff MVP in 2002<BR/>* Best goalie at world juniors in 2002<BR/><BR/>Ward and Fleury have had some great playoff moments, you have to give them credit for that. However, Fleury started his playoff career 1-2, 4.67, .867, so I'll reserve judgment on Lehtonen until he gets another opportunity on the big stage.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-8934310177589477782009-04-02T17:49:00.000-04:002009-04-02T17:49:00.000-04:00he is on par with or maybe even a bit ahead of Fle...<I>he is on par with or maybe even a bit ahead of Fleury and not too far<B> behind Lehtonen</B> as the best goalie drafted in 2002 or 2003. </I><BR/><BR/><B>Regular season stats<BR/>-----------------------------<BR/>Ward 117-76-18, .597, .903, 2.82<BR/>Fleury 109-84-25, .557, .907, 2.87<BR/>Lehtonen 93-83-17, .526, .912, 2.88<BR/></B><BR/>Pretty much a wash, Lehtonen is third best in GP, Win%, GAA, first in Sv%, all of the margins small. We have already established Lehtonen likely has a negative shot prevention which necessitates the higher Sv%. But nothing here that says to me that Lehtonen is the Best of the three. <BR/><BR/>Let's move on.<BR/><B><BR/>Playoff stats<BR/>----------------<BR/>Ward 15-8, .652, .920, 2.14<BR/>Fleury 15-10, .600, .922, 2.30<BR/>Lehtonen 0-2, .000, .849, 5.59<BR/></B><BR/>Uh, yeah.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-79487962195681976612009-04-02T11:51:00.000-04:002009-04-02T11:51:00.000-04:00While Ward had great stats in the 2006 playoffs (....While Ward had great stats in the 2006 playoffs (.920 SV%), I thought they might be a bit inflated due to his playoff opposition:<BR/><BR/>MTL (20th in GF)<BR/>NJD (21st in GF)<BR/>BUF (6th in GF)<BR/>EDM (14th in GF)<BR/><BR/>Average position of opposition regular season GF = 15th (15.25)<BR/><BR/>So he generally had great results against "average" opposition... and "average" opposition is what one would like to test for in terms of assessing player quality.<BR/><BR/>But I guess one usually thinks that players excelling in the playoffs should be doing so against the very top tier of teams, other than perhaps the first round where mediocre teams are usually sacrificed.Statmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11729540810567722429noreply@blogger.com