tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post8910493952921894223..comments2024-03-27T06:03:35.695-04:00Comments on Brodeur is a Fraud: Why Is Josh Harding 19-27-4?The Contrarian Goaltenderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-72982233687130951692009-07-07T18:24:17.926-04:002009-07-07T18:24:17.926-04:00I'm pretty sure you're right, Bruce. I ha...I'm pretty sure you're right, Bruce. I haven't run a ton of numbers to test it, but it seems to be pretty consistent in the numbers I have seen.<br /><br />Most of the time goalies will face fewer shots when they enter the game, because most of the time they are entering blowout situations, and we know that shot rates drop in blowouts. The odd time a coach might switch goalies in a 4-4 tie or something, and that won't necessarily affect the shots against, but when the game is already decided then most of the time the winning team will mostly shut it down.The Contrarian Goaltenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433370306939690205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8148461224473220694.post-43737304656621284252009-07-07T13:46:35.662-04:002009-07-07T13:46:35.662-04:00Thanks, CG, that's excellent analysis.
One t...Thanks, CG, that's excellent analysis. <br /><br />One thing that caught my eye was Harding's SA/60 total of 32.0 in starts and 29.9 in relief. At a guess, I would expect relief goalies to face lower shot rates as they usually enter games with their team trailing if not getting blown out, and the other guys are often looking to just shut 'er down and play out the string without running up the score. But I have never seen actual stats such as the one cited here to support that. Obviously one can't read much into one data point no matter how much it may support a pet theory, but have you done any other work which supports the same effect? Or counters it, for that matter? <br /><br />If true, it might have an effect on a team that will yank the #1 having a bad night but will tend to leave the back-up to finish his own bad starts on the grounds that the whole point of having him in there was to rest the #1. Might have the overall effect of bringing #2 a little closer to #1. <br /><br />Thanks for the push right up top. However, FYI in recent weeks I have joined Jonathan Willis's crew at <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/" rel="nofollow"> The Copper & Blue</a>.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.com