Monday, September 29, 2008

Greatest of All-Time?

The "Brodeur is the Greatest" argument pops up again in a top 30 goalies list on NHL Home Ice. I expect this to be a taste of things to come in a season where Brodeur will likely break the records for most career regular season wins and career regular season shutouts, two records that are traditionally weighted heavily in the greatest goalie debate. Far be it from me to criticize a list that rates Tom Barrasso ahead of Frank Brimsek, Mike Vernon ahead of Turk Broda, and Chris Osgood ahead of Roberto Luongo, but I obviously disagree with the #1 ranking.

Actually, I've seen worse lists. The top half is not too bad, other than the guy at #1: the goalies he has from 2-5 are the same guys in my top 4, just in a different order. I think the wheels come off from #16-#30, but at that point the margins really do start to narrow.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

regardless of whether you think brodeur is the best of all time, its become almost a joke among anyone who knows hockey to try nd deny him being in the top 5. if you were able to admit that, then i would give your site a little bit more credibility than i currently do. to ask who is the greatest is a difficult question as it really comes down to individual interpretation. i like pizza, you like hamburgers, i think brodeur is the greatest, you may say roy. its really just individual evaluation, but the top 5 is something that is a lot easier to do if you dont do it in any particular order. no one would ever argue roberto luongo as a top 5 goalie, so how can you say he is better than brodeur? also, nobody in the history of the game has gotten the stats brodeur has amassed so its kind of foolish not to even acknowledge him as "great". its like arguing that babe ruth wasnt the greatest hitter of all time because the competition was weaker, he didnt face quality pitching, and he struck out alot. but he still has some pretty damn impressive stats. your argument for hasek, which i think has some merit, would be like me saying mickey mantle was the best of all time. sure there is a following who would support this. and a shorter much more awe inspiring career may be the grounds to make your case, but alot of people just dont see it that way, and its not as though all those people are uneducated or even wrong for that matter. its just opinion.
the other thing is, its hard to make a case for somebody when in order to do so you need to tear down brodeur. why not just stack accolades and see whos got more. but it seems as though in every argument you make for another goalie, you always break down why brodeur isnt that good first, while building up the other guy.
also, considering that brodeur will likely end his career with over 700 wins, and 120 shutouts, can you name in hockey, or any other sport for that matter, somebody who has absolutely shattered two, or even one career record of such significance as brodeur has, and not been top 5 worthy. it just doesnt happen.

The Contrarian Goaltender said...

I don't think it's a joke that Martin Brodeur is not in the top 5, because I think the consensus of hockey historians would probably be that he isn't a top 5 goalie, at least not yet. Check out this list, for instance.

I still think Brodeur is somewhere between 8th and 10th all-time. I know you think that's crazy, but there it is.

considering that brodeur will likely end his career with over 700 wins, and 120 shutouts, can you name in hockey, or any other sport for that matter, somebody who has absolutely shattered two, or even one career record of such significance as brodeur has, and not been top 5 worthy. it just doesnt happen.

Sure, that's easy. I can name a guy who has tons of career records (most career rushing yards, most career rushing TDs, most career attempts, 11 consecutive 1,000 yard seasons), and yet a lot of people wouldn't rank in the top 5 and probably would max out at #4 or #5 on the lists of most experts. A guy who is very similar to Brodeur in that he had the benefit of playing with extraordinary teammates for most of his career: Emmitt Smith.

Another guy with a couple of very important career records and a debatable top 5 standing is Hank Aaron.

Re: Luongo vs. Brodeur, Brodeur has a massive longevity advantage, which is why he has had the better career to date. I think Luongo has been the better goalie over the last six seasons, but that edge doesn't make up for Brodeur's entire career.

a shorter much more awe inspiring career may be the grounds to make your case, but alot of people just dont see it that way

Sure they do. They rank Bobby Orr #1 or #2 all-time, and Mario Lemieux #3 or #4. They just conveniently like to change their standards with Dominik Hasek, whose "short" career started when he broke into the top professional league in Czechoslovakia at the age of 17 and was still playing in the NHL until the age of 43.

Bruce said...

In related news, Roberto Luongo was just named captain of the Vancouver Canucks. For some asinine reason he can't wear the C, but he is offically The Man. Is he the first goalie-captain since Bill Durnan?

Anonymous said...

this is in response the cg's assessment of the first statement.
first the other list you refer to is absolutely hilarious. anyone can put gretzky, orr, howe, lemieux in the top 5. but after that, the list is atrociously flawed? howie morenz? not to mention that it is retarded to even list goalies and skater together. dont think that was a good move ever acknowledging that list.
next, emmitt smith, as you mentioned, is arguably in the top 5 at his position. not to mention he hung around to break the record, he didnt crush it by 20% (wins) and 10%+ (shutouts)which is what brodeur is going to do.

hank aaron doesnt hold any records unless your reffering to the rbi record, which i dont think you were, and even that one isnt by the same atronomical proportions brodeurs records are. once again though, aaron is "debatable" for top 5, using your words.
you refuse to even acknowledge brodeur as arguabley top 5, and even go as far as to say he's 8-10.

in comparing records of similar status and relation to productivity per season to brodeur's in other sports, you see the names of kareem abdul jabar (points) only 3% but much higher before malone dragged his career on a few years too many yea to go after it, cy young (wins)22% go figure, but those dont mean anything, nolan ryan (strikeouts) 19%, brett favre, dan marino (passing yards), 20.5%, and wayne gretzky (goals) 11 %. so regardless of how you want to argue this, guys with similar outlier-type record numbers of similar importance as brodeurs records, are indisputable all time greats. now as always, you can try to discredit this, but you cant deny it, as it is fact.

The Contrarian Goaltender said...

but after that, the list is atrociously flawed? howie morenz?

Atrociously flawed? Would you like to defend that a bit more? Are you one of those fans who only thinks post-1970 players should be ranked on all-time lists? Or are you just not aware that Howie Morenz was a three time Hart Trophy winner and the best player and leading scorer of his era?

not to mention that it is retarded to even list goalies and skater together.

Fine, let's list the goalies separately then. Here is how a group of people with extended knowledge of hockey history voted the top 5 goalies of all-time: 1. Jacques Plante, 2. Dominik Hasek, 3. Patrick Roy, 4. Terry Sawchuk, 5. Glenn Hall.

Is it a perfect list? Of course not, I disagree with a lot of the rankings as well. But I am certainly not the only guy in the world who thinks that Martin Brodeur is not a top 5 goalie. Some experts would and some wouldn't, but it is not as cut-and-dried as you make it because there are legitimate reasons to drop him out of that ranking. Just like the expert consensus may very well be that Emmitt Smith is one of the top 5 ever, but there are a lot of knowledgeable football people that think he was hugely overrated and is closer to 10th than 1st.

I agree with your point that people who have outlier records tend to be seen as all-time greats. Not everyone though. Nolan Ryan is another example of a guy who wasn't really an all-time great (i.e. top 5 ever at his position, there's at least one stat guy that has him as low as 30th all-time), but he was durable and good for a long time and ended up dominating career strikeouts.

I don't think wins and shutouts records should be important because they are so team dependent, and I guess that's where we differ.

you refuse to even acknowledge brodeur as arguabley top 5, and even go as far as to say he's 8-10.

I did not mean to imply Brodeur isn't arguably top 5. That depends on your criteria. If you place a very heavy weighting on games played, emphasize longevity over peak value, prefer GAA to save percentage, think that goaltenders are very important in terms of determining team success, and take Vezina Trophy voting at face value without considering strength of competition or whether the voters picked the right guy or not, then I have no doubt that you would rank Brodeur in the top 5 of all-time. Obviously it is "arguable", just look at all the media articles coming out these days that refer to Brodeur as "arguably the greatest of all time" or "one of the very best of all time". However, I have substantially different criteria than most people do for evaluating goalies.

I think save percentage is very important and I don't think team success is very important. It is simply impossible to claim that save percentage is the most important goalie statistic and simultaneously proclaim Martin Brodeur the best goalie ever, or even the best goalie of his generation (just see my latest post where he ranks behind John Vanbiesbrouck in goals saved vs. league average).

If you disagree, fine, but our difference of opinion is not really with respect to Martin Brodeur, but to what makes a great goaltender. And if you want to win me over, you are going to have to convince me that save percentage is not the most important goalie statistic or that Brodeur is contributing significant value in other ways, and I have seen little evidence that either of those two viewpoints are correct.

Bruce said...

I still think Brodeur is somewhere between 8th and 10th all-time. I know you think that's crazy, but there it is.

I don't think that's crazy at all; all I've been saying all along is that he deserves to be part of the conversation, which clearly he is by that ranking. Anybody who ranks in the Top 10 all time has to be a seriously great goalie.

Not bad for a Fraud.