The development of young goalies is not usually a linear process. There are very few goalies who are very good almost right from day one. Even if goalies play well in their rookie seasons, they usually have to struggle through some ups and downs, like Carey Price is experiencing this year in Montreal. Sometimes goalie have a few rough seasons early in their careers, and then suddenly make the jump from mediocre to good (e.g. Marc-Andre Fleury last season). Other factors that can hinder development are bad teammates or injuries (and sometimes both, as in the case of Kari Lehtonen).
Cam Ward has the same birth year as Fleury and the same draft year as Lehtonen. He has had a bit of a different career path than those two guys, bursting onto the scene in spectacular fashion in 2006 when he won the starting job for Carolina in the playoffs and played so well he won the Conn Smythe Trophy. However, until this season he had never been able to replicate that level of play in the regular season and was clearly not playing at the same level as his two main peers.
Ward's playoff performance looks like a fluke when compared to his regular season results before and after, and maybe it was. It would be a mistake, however, to write Ward off as a one-shot wonder, even if he somehow caught lightning in a bottle back in 2006. The reason is that Cam Ward has one of the most straight-line development curves I have seen for a young goalie:
2005-06: 3.68, .882
2006-07: 2.93, .897
2007-08: 2.75, .904
2008-09: 2.45, .916
Ward just turned 25, and this is the year he has taken the leap to becoming an above-average goalie. His save percentage is very strong considering Carolina usually does not do a great job preventing dangerous scoring chances - Hockey Numbers has Ward in the top 10 among starting goalies this year in shot-quality neutral save percentage. He has solidly outplayed his backups over the last two seasons - 0.8 goals per game better last year, 0.5 goals per game this year, and Carolina has a much better winning percentage with Ward in net than without him over each of the last three seasons.
It is possible that Ward is simply having a strong year. However, his past results do support an above-average NHL career: Ward was a first round pick, he was the 2003-04 CHL goalie of the year, and in 2004-05 he put up a .937 save percentage in the AHL as a 20-year old. I was a bit skeptical of those results throughout Ward's early NHL career, as his junior and AHL teams were very strong defensively, but .937 is pretty strong even on a top defensive team and Ward has cemented his status as a legitimate NHL goalie with his continued development at the highest level.
Ward likely has even more room to develop, and I'd say right now he is on par with or maybe even a bit ahead of Fleury and not too far behind Lehtonen as the best goalie drafted in 2002 or 2003. Ward has also been a major contributor to the Hurricanes' postseason drive this season, and with just 5 games remaining it looks pretty likely that he is going to be returning to the playoffs for the first time since he skated around the RBC Center with the Stanley Cup in 2006. Ward is a much better goalie now than he was then, but time will tell if he can recapture the same postseason magic.
Cam Ward has the same birth year as Fleury and the same draft year as Lehtonen. He has had a bit of a different career path than those two guys, bursting onto the scene in spectacular fashion in 2006 when he won the starting job for Carolina in the playoffs and played so well he won the Conn Smythe Trophy. However, until this season he had never been able to replicate that level of play in the regular season and was clearly not playing at the same level as his two main peers.
Ward's playoff performance looks like a fluke when compared to his regular season results before and after, and maybe it was. It would be a mistake, however, to write Ward off as a one-shot wonder, even if he somehow caught lightning in a bottle back in 2006. The reason is that Cam Ward has one of the most straight-line development curves I have seen for a young goalie:
2005-06: 3.68, .882
2006-07: 2.93, .897
2007-08: 2.75, .904
2008-09: 2.45, .916
Ward just turned 25, and this is the year he has taken the leap to becoming an above-average goalie. His save percentage is very strong considering Carolina usually does not do a great job preventing dangerous scoring chances - Hockey Numbers has Ward in the top 10 among starting goalies this year in shot-quality neutral save percentage. He has solidly outplayed his backups over the last two seasons - 0.8 goals per game better last year, 0.5 goals per game this year, and Carolina has a much better winning percentage with Ward in net than without him over each of the last three seasons.
It is possible that Ward is simply having a strong year. However, his past results do support an above-average NHL career: Ward was a first round pick, he was the 2003-04 CHL goalie of the year, and in 2004-05 he put up a .937 save percentage in the AHL as a 20-year old. I was a bit skeptical of those results throughout Ward's early NHL career, as his junior and AHL teams were very strong defensively, but .937 is pretty strong even on a top defensive team and Ward has cemented his status as a legitimate NHL goalie with his continued development at the highest level.
Ward likely has even more room to develop, and I'd say right now he is on par with or maybe even a bit ahead of Fleury and not too far behind Lehtonen as the best goalie drafted in 2002 or 2003. Ward has also been a major contributor to the Hurricanes' postseason drive this season, and with just 5 games remaining it looks pretty likely that he is going to be returning to the playoffs for the first time since he skated around the RBC Center with the Stanley Cup in 2006. Ward is a much better goalie now than he was then, but time will tell if he can recapture the same postseason magic.
9 comments:
While Ward had great stats in the 2006 playoffs (.920 SV%), I thought they might be a bit inflated due to his playoff opposition:
MTL (20th in GF)
NJD (21st in GF)
BUF (6th in GF)
EDM (14th in GF)
Average position of opposition regular season GF = 15th (15.25)
So he generally had great results against "average" opposition... and "average" opposition is what one would like to test for in terms of assessing player quality.
But I guess one usually thinks that players excelling in the playoffs should be doing so against the very top tier of teams, other than perhaps the first round where mediocre teams are usually sacrificed.
he is on par with or maybe even a bit ahead of Fleury and not too far behind Lehtonen as the best goalie drafted in 2002 or 2003.
Regular season stats
-----------------------------
Ward 117-76-18, .597, .903, 2.82
Fleury 109-84-25, .557, .907, 2.87
Lehtonen 93-83-17, .526, .912, 2.88
Pretty much a wash, Lehtonen is third best in GP, Win%, GAA, first in Sv%, all of the margins small. We have already established Lehtonen likely has a negative shot prevention which necessitates the higher Sv%. But nothing here that says to me that Lehtonen is the Best of the three.
Let's move on.
Playoff stats
----------------
Ward 15-8, .652, .920, 2.14
Fleury 15-10, .600, .922, 2.30
Lehtonen 0-2, .000, .849, 5.59
Uh, yeah.
Bruce: I meant in terms of how good they are right now, not based on career accomplishments. I agree you can make a case for Ward or Fleury over Lehtonen if you consider playoffs and longevity, but I'd still probably take Lehtonen for this reason alone:
Average shot quality against over the last 3 seasons:
Atlanta 1.04
Pittsburgh 1.01
Carolina 0.98
I think Lehtonen was a much better 20 year old goalie than either of the other two, but he has had his development slowed by injury troubles which has allowed them to close the gap. Despite his troubles staying in the lineup, I still think Lehtonen is the most talented of the three and has the highest upside.
Playoff stats
----------------
Ward 15-8, .652, .920, 2.14
Fleury 15-10, .600, .922, 2.30
Lehtonen 0-2, .000, .849, 5.59
Uh, yeah.
Lack of opportunity has a lot to do with that, although Lehtonen did play one absolutely horrible playoff game. Maybe he is a bad playoff performer, I don't know, but his pre-NHL career looks awfully "clutch":
* 16-10, 1.86, .940 career in AHL playoffs
* 14-6, 1.68 career in Finnish playoffs
* Finnish playoff MVP in 2002
* Best goalie at world juniors in 2002
Ward and Fleury have had some great playoff moments, you have to give them credit for that. However, Fleury started his playoff career 1-2, 4.67, .867, so I'll reserve judgment on Lehtonen until he gets another opportunity on the big stage.
I'll reserve judgment on Lehtonen until he gets another opportunity on the big stage.
Fair enough. You may, however, be waiting awhile.
Fair enough. You may, however, be waiting awhile.
Maybe, maybe not. Lehtonen's a UFA this summer. I doubt Atlanta will re-sign him, so he'll likely have the chance to pick his spot. If he goes to a good team, I think he'll start to attract recognition as one of the better goalies in the league.
Maybe, maybe not. Lehtonen's a UFA this summer.
I believe he's an RFA, which complicates matters a bit.
Carolina's switch from Stefan to Barrasso as the goaltending coach in the middle of last season couldn't have anything to do with Ward improving this year, could it?
"Carolina's switch from Stefan to Barrasso as the goaltending coach in the middle of last season couldn't have anything to do with Ward improving this year, could it?"
It's possible that the change to Barrasso is (partly) responsible for Ward's solid play this season.
However, it cannot account for his two previous year-to-year improvements (with reference to save percentage), which are similar in magnitude to this season's improvement.
Despite the improvement in numbers, though, I don't believe last season was considered anywhere near an accomplishment for Ward - more of a disappointment. Certainly didn't do much to dispel the image of mediocrity he'd been gaining. It may be predicated on making the playoffs or living up to his Conn Smythe numbers, but I think there's a little more beyond the usefulness of the raw data.
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