Sunday, August 2, 2009

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Here's another stats dump post that gives goalie numbers on the penalty kill.

Save Percentage on the Penalty Kill (1998-99 to 2008-09, min 4000 EV SA):

RankGoalieSAPK SV%
1.Henrik Lundqvist1,555.890
2.Roberto Luongo3,721.889
3.Cristobal Huet1,321.887
4.Manny Legace1,720.885
5.Dwayne Roloson2,035.882
6.Dominik Hasek2,099.881
7.Patrick Roy1,698.879
8.Olaf Kolzig3,888.878
9.Miikka Kiprusoff2,343.877
10.Tim Thomas1,311.876
11.Arturs Irbe1,457.876
12.Roman Turek1,536.876
13.Martin Biron2,193.875
14.David Aebischer1,189.875
15.Martin Brodeur3,029.875
16.Marc Denis1,924.874
17.Chris Osgood2,416.872
18.Ryan Miller1,449.872
19.Ed Belfour2,519.871
20.Tomas Vokoun2,765.871


There certainly seems to be more randomness and/or potential team effects in this sample than in the even-strength one, as we see goalies like Roman Turek, Marc Denis and Chris Osgood popping up. The best guys (Hasek, Roy, Luongo) are still near the top, however. I think it is likely that playing at even-strength and playing on the penalty kill require different skill sets, at least to some degree, which would explain some of the discrepancy.

It does seem that it would be a mistake to entirely dismiss penalty kill performance in favour of even strength play and thereby fail to credit some of these guys for a significant contribution while their teams are down a man. I'm still not really sure how much of an effect the penalty killers have in front of the goalie, if special teams are more team dependent then that should be factored in. In any event, a goalie's contribution at even strength is much more significant than on special teams.

Tomas Vokoun drops pretty far down the list compared to his outstanding even strength results. Other notables who apparently don't do as well on special teams are J.S. Giguere, who is right behind Vokoun in 21st spot with an .870, and blog favourite Kari Lehtonen (.861).

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

In the case of J-S, I think the vast number of penalties the Ducks take has some impact on the picture. With that many power plays, surely some goals will go in and the goalie and penalty-killers alike will get exhausted.

Matt said...

It does seem that it would be a mistake to entirely dismiss penalty kill performance in favour of even strength play and thereby fail to credit some of these guys for a significant contribution while their teams are down a man.

It would be -- qualitatively speaking, or over a 10-year period as you've shown. But in the short term, the noise is louder than the signal, even if it seems like the signal is coming in just fine.

At least that's my take on it after reading discussions on it for the past couple seasons.

Bruce said...

Mine is probably a minority opinion (again :) but I thought both Romans (Turek, Cechmanek) were excellent goaltenders.

Btw, CG, I promised you some feedback on the goalie of the decade. I don't anticipate you'll be surprised.

Moneypuck said...

A problem with this would be adjusting for eras (unless you did that).

I'd like to see these SV%'s adjusted for league average.

The Contrarian Goaltender said...

Matt: I agree with your thoughts on the randomness of special teams.

Bruce: You might be in the minority generally speaking on Cechmanek, but most stats guys are right there with you because his numbers were quite strong. But really, Roman Turek? I get that you like the puckhandlers, but that's going a bit overboard.

Turek's not even league average in even strength save percentage. He would have to be better than Brodeur/Belfour in non-save skills to get from there to anything that could be described as excellent. Given that Turek's shots against numbers were more or less the same as his backups I'm not sure there's much to support that. Nothing from his numbers or watching him play suggested anything more to me than an average guy on predominantly strong defensive teams.

Moneypuck: Era isn't a big deal for penalty kill save percentages. See the averages posted here. Looks to me like that's a pretty constant environment over this period. The only season that is outside the norm was 2005-06.