Monday, October 12, 2009

Situation-Adjusted Save Percentage

My conclusion from a recent look at special teams performance was that a goalie's play while his team is killing a penalty is important for evaluation, but that his performance when his team was on the power play was not. The latter conclusion was based on the lack of correlation between EV SV% and PP SV%, which suggests that the results are either highly influenced by luck or the rest of the team.

Gabe Desjardins over at Puck Prospectus agrees with me, and has a nice article up with a more advanced look at evaluating goalies based on only their EV and PK play. His method looks like a solid one for comprehensive goalie evaluation, but I thought of developing a much simpler formula that can be used as a quick-and-dirty way to take special teams into account.

Over the last decade, 76.3% of the shots have come at EV, 3.7% on the PP, and 20.0% on the PK. That number is skewed up slightly by the 2005-06 season, as in both of the last two seasons 19.7% of the shots taken were by a team on the power play. If we ignore the PP shots, a good approximation of the average EV/PK split is 80/20. By assigning an 80% weighting to the goalie's EV SV% and a 20% weighting to his PK SV% we can quickly adjust for special teams factors.

This adjustment doesn't actually make much of a difference for most goalies, but it does impact goalies who either faced a disproportionate number of shots on the penalty kill or for whatever reason allowed a unusual number of shorthanded goals. Here are the top 20 in situation-adjusted save percentage since the lockout (min. 100 GP):

1. Niklas Backstrom, .923
2. Tomas Vokoun, .922
3. Roberto Luongo, .920
4. Tim Thomas, .919
5. Cristobal Huet, .918
5. Henrik Lundqvist, .918
5. Dominik Hasek, .918
8. Martin Brodeur, .917
8. J.S. Giguere, .917
10. Miikka Kiprusoff, .914
10. Chris Mason, .914
12. Manny Fernandez, .913
13. Martin Biron, .912
13. Ryan Miller, .912
13. Kari Lehtonen, .912
16. Ilja Bryzgalov, .910
16. Marc-Andre Fleury, .910
16. Ray Emery, .910
19. Rick Dipietro, 909
19. Dwayne Roloson, .909
19. Manny Legace, .909

I think the best use of this adjustment would be as a quick check when comparing goalies. Let's say you were voting on the 2009 Calder Trophy and you wanted to compare the performances of Steve Mason and Pekka Rinne. If you look at the raw save percentages it was pretty close, with Mason at .916 and Rinne at .917. What that doesn't show, however, is that Rinne faced an unusually low number of shots against on the penalty kill. If we multiply their EV SV% by 80% and their PK SV% by 20%, Mason edges ahead .917 to .914.

The formula also adjusts for goalies who were lucky or unlucky with shorthanded scoring chances against. Henrik Lundqvist and Cam Ward both had .916 save percentages last season. However, Lundqvist allowed 11 shorthanded goals against compared to Ward's 5, as the Rangers allowed a lot of shots and presumably a lot of scoring chances against on the power play. If we look at EV and PK play only, Lundqvist jumps to .919 while Ward falls to .915.

To simply adjust for special teams factors remember the "80/20 rule", and you'll be able to pick out the goalies who have the burden or good fortune of facing heavy or light work on the penalty kill.

17 comments:

Scott Reynolds said...

Recently Gabe has taken to expressing save percentage in a manner that includes missed shots as well as shots on goal. Given that save percentage is such an important statistic in our evaluation of goaltenders I was curious what you think about that swtich.

The Contrarian Goaltender said...

Yeah, I noticed he had done that. I'm not sure missed shots mean much, they probably even out for most goalies over a larger sample size, so I don't see it as a problem conceptually to include missed shots in the totals. However, I would be a bit leery of arenas being more likely to overcount or undercount missed shots, as I imagine counting missed shots would require more subjectivity than counting actual shots. Do you know if he has looked into scorer bias for missed shots?

Butterfly Aliyah said...

I want to know how it is you can make this post and not claim that you are plugging Sieve M8son. Even last year he was average at best, now look at him, Dan Cloutier high on crack could outplay him!

شركة الصالحية بيرم said...


شركة تنظيف بالظهران
شركة تنظيف شقق بالظهران
شركة نقل اثاث بالظهران
شركة مكافحة حشرات بالظهران
شركة كشف تسربات المياه بالظهران
شركة تنظيف ستاىر بالظهران
شركة مكافحة النمل الابيض بالظهران
شركة تنظيف اثاث بالظهران
شركة تنظيف خزانات بالظهران
شركة تسليك مجاري بالظهران
شركة جلي رخام بالظهران
شركة تنظيف بيارات بالظهران
شركة رش مبيدات بالظهران
شركة تنظيف سجاد بالظهران
شركة تنظيف منازل بالظهران
شركة تنظيف مجالس بالظهران
شركة تنظيف كنب بالظهران

manar said...

صولا
افضل شركة تنظيف موكيت بالبخار بالشارقة
تنظيف موكيت بالبخار بالشارقة
شركة تنظيف كنب بالامارات

Anonymous said...

retro jordans
jordan shoes
jordan shoes
curry 8 shoes
hermes handbags
kyrie 5 spongebob
yeezy 700
moncler
goyard bags
off white clothingoutlet

Anonymous said...

New Metro City Gujar Khan
Bahria Town Karachi 2

Anonymous said...

air jordan 1
birkin bag
fear of god outlet
supreme
kyrie 9
golden goose
golden goose sneaker
kyrie 7
yeezy
golden goose outlet

travel and events said...

For travelers seeking comfort and luxury from the moment they touch down, there's nothing quite like the convenience of Airport Limo Service. With meticulous attention to detail, these chauffeured rides redefine airport transportation. Imagine stepping off the plane and into the plush interior of a sleek limousine, where every need is catered to with finesse. Whether it's a business trip or a well-deserved vacation, Airport Limo Service ensures a seamless transition from airport to destination. From professional drivers to immaculate vehicles, every aspect exudes sophistication, making it the preferred choice for discerning travelers worldwide.

Pearl One Courtyard said...

Pearl One Courtyard. epitomizes contemporary urban living with its sophisticated design and upscale amenities. Nestled in the heart of the city, this residential complex offers a serene oasis amidst the bustling metropolis. Boasting meticulously landscaped courtyards and modern architecture, Pearl One Courtyard provides a tranquil retreat for residents. The apartments feature elegant finishes, spacious layouts, and panoramic views of the city skyline. Residents enjoy access to a range of amenities including a fitness center, swimming pool, and rooftop lounge, creating a vibrant community atmosphere. With its prime location and luxurious offerings, Pearl One Courtyard redefines urban living for the discerning individual.

IQ Transportation said...

Flexible and convenient hourly service, tailored to your needs. Get assistance with errands, chores, or tasks, without long-term commitments. Perfect for busy individuals, seniors, or those requiring temporary support. Enjoy peace of mind with our reliable and professional help.

Times Square Mall said...

A vibrant shopping destination in Lahore, Pakistan. Offers a diverse range of local and international brands, dining options, and entertainment facilities, creating a lively atmosphere for visitors of all ages.

Blue World City said...

"Experience luxury living in Blue World City General Block Phase 2, offering modern amenities, scenic views, and a prime location, perfect for a comfortable and serene lifestyle, just 30 minutes from Islamabad."

Airport Limo Service said...

Airport Limo Service offers luxurious, reliable, and punctual transportation to and from airports. Experience comfort, professional chauffeurs, and premium vehicles, ensuring a seamless and stress-free journey for both business and leisure travelers.

Airport Limo Service in Connecticut said...

Experience luxurious transportation to and from Connecticut airports with our reliable and comfortable limo service. Enjoy stress-free travel, professional drivers, and top-notch vehicles for a seamless airport experience. Book now and arrive in style!

Mid City Housing said...

Experience luxurious living in the heart of Lahore with Mid City Housing! This premier residential community offers modern amenities, serene surroundings, and easy access to city attractions. Enjoy a comfortable and secure lifestyle in our beautifully designed homes.

Corporate Limo Service in CT said...

"Experience luxury and professionalism with our Corporate Limo Service in CT, providing reliable and stylish transportation for executives and clients, perfect for airport transfers, meetings, and events, ensuring a seamless and impressive travel experience."